New Delhi: The southwest monsoon is gradually spreading across additional parts of India, but widespread rainfall activity is likely to remain subdued
over the coming days. According to weather model projections, a prolonged lull phase may persist until at least June 23, delaying significant monsoon showers across several regions.
Meteorologists note that while the monsoon circulation continues to advance geographically, the atmospheric conditions required to generate widespread rainfall remain weak. As a result, large parts of the country could continue experiencing below-normal rainfall during the third week of June.
Between June 15 and June 21, monsoon activity is expected to remain largely inactive across much of India, according to weather forecasts. Instead of organised monsoon rain bands, most precipitation is likely to occur in the form of isolated thunderstorms.
The Karnataka-Andhra Pradesh-Tamil Nadu border region, along with parts of the Eastern Ghats, is expected to witness frequent thunderstorm activity. These systems may bring spells of moderate to heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds.
Even during this weak phase, conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to move into additional parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and Chhattisgarh over the next few days.
Weather experts point out that monsoon advancement and rainfall intensity do not always occur simultaneously. The monsoon may continue progressing northward, even when rainfall activity remains limited.
Forecast models indicate a gradual improvement in rainfall activity in the last week of June. Between June 22 and June 28, thunderstorms are expected to intensify over interior Karnataka, southern Tamil Nadu, Kerala and adjoining regions.
A broader monsoon revival could emerge between June 29 and July 5, with the Western Ghats of Kerala and the Konkan coast likely to experience stronger rainfall episodes. Weather watchers will be closely monitoring developments as India awaits a more active monsoon phase later this month.
