New Delhi: The United States has temporarily allowed the purchases of Russian oil that is stranded at sea to stabilize the energy markets. As of March
12, there were around 124 million barrels of Russia-origin oil at sea across 30 locations.
The global oil market has suffered a severe impact because of the US-Israel-Iran war that has hit the Middle East region. While the war rages in West Asia, Russia appears to be the biggest beneficiary of the conflict.
As the Russian oil at sea is bought at raised prices, it is President Vladimir Putin who will essentially gain from it. This will also bring more money to Russia that would boost its struggling economy.
Remains of a burnt car as smoke billows after overnight airstrikes on oil depots on March 8, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)
Russian oil selling at a premium
Last year, Russian federal budget faced a lot of strain. The Kremlin had hoped that its crude would sell at around US$60 a barrel. However, in early 2026, Russia grappled to hit that price and was forced to give huge discounts to buyers in India and China to keep its oil selling.
Then came Trump’s tariff war. However, the Iran war that has hit the Gulf region changed the equation altogether. Russia’s oil started selling at a premium. Reports say that with Brent crude hovering around US$100 a barrel after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Russia is seeing a huge increase in oil revenue, as it is also seeing renewed demand for its oil with nations scrambling for backup supplies.
Funding Ukraine war
The raised oil price and the revenue it is generating will go a long way in helping Putin fund the war against Ukraine. The US seems to have put Ukraine on the back burner, with all its attention concentrated on its engagement with Iran. This diversion could hit Ukraine hard. Reports suggest that Ukraine is already falling short of defence missiles which it needs to sustain the war, particularly the PAC-3 Patriot interceptor missiles that it gets from the US. Ukraine uses these missiles to protect its key infrastructure from Russian attacks. Therefore, if the US military capabilities are focused on Iran, Ukraine will bear the brunt and it will help Russia in a big way.
That’s not all. As the war intensifies, the Trump administration may be forced to ease its stance, including sanctions, against Russia to ensure that oil prices don’t create a situation where the US suffers heavy economic loses. By doing so, it could displease its Western allies. But the US knows leniency is the only option it has.
Signs of US leniency towards Russia became apparent when even though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that Russians were helping Iran not just with unmanned aerial vehicles, but also with missiles and air defenses, Washington downplayed reports that Moscow was providing Tehran with intelligence to target US troops, ships and aircraft. This is a clear indication that the US is being prudent while dealing with Russia, which apparently is helping Putin’s complex, strategic game. The Russian President knows how to balance the act!
‘Putin has won the lottery’
Oil expert Daniel Yergin reportedly said that Putin gloated over the oil shock at a Kremlin meeting recently. Yergin, vice chair of S&P Global, told CNN on Wednesday: “Vladimir Putin has won the lottery here. He’s the biggest winner so far because the price of oil is way up to fund his war. And the sanctions are being taken off.” António Costa, President of the European Union, has also dubbed Russia as the “only winner” of the crisis.
Experts believe that Trump might have miscalculated Iran’s strength. However, what the US never anticipated was that his miscalculation could turn into a strategic windfall for Putin and Russia.
