Mumbai: India’s southwest monsoon has slowed significantly after an encouraging start, raising concerns over rainfall shortages, water availability and
the possible impact of a strengthening El Nino.
Satellite images indicate a sharp decline in monsoon cloud cover across large parts of the country. After advancing into southern and central India, the rain-bearing system has largely weakened, resulting in below-normal rainfall across several regions.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India received only 19.2 mm of rainfall between June 4 and June 15, compared to the normal 53.7 mm for the period. This has left the country with a rainfall deficit of nearly 64 per cent.
Mumbai awaits monsoon
The slowdown has been particularly evident along the west coast. Mumbai, which usually receives the monsoon between June 9 and June 11, is still waiting for its arrival well into the second half of June.
Meteorologists expect the monsoon to advance over the remaining parts of Maharashtra and the central Arabian Sea within the next few days, although widespread rainfall may remain limited until late June.
Driest June in years
Mumbai is now heading towards what could become its driest June in nearly two decades. The Santacruz observatory has recorded only 13.1 mm of rainfall this month, while Colaba has received just 5 mm.
The city’s average rainfall for June stands at 526.3 mm. If current conditions persist, June 2026 could rival June 2014, when Mumbai received only 87.3 mm of rainfall, among the lowest June totals on record.
Water storage concerns
The weak monsoon has also started affecting water reserves. Maharashtra’s reservoirs currently hold about 24.5 per cent of their total storage capacity, while several reservoirs in Gujarat are reporting lower-than-normal water levels.
Meteorologists have attributed the slowdown to the lack of strong weather systems over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Climate agencies have also confirmed the emergence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which have historically been associated with weaker Indian monsoons.
Experts have warned that with Pacific Ocean temperatures continuing to rise, El Nino’s influence could strengthen further by September, potentially affecting rainfall during the remainder of the monsoon season.
