New Delhi: Earth is bracing for severe space weather as a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) which erupted from the Sun on 6 June at approximately 14:00
UTC is projected to strike the geomagnetic field of the planet on 8 June. Initial impacts are expected by early to mid-day. Over the course of 8 June, minor to moderate (G1-G2) storming are expected to develop into a strong G3-level storm later in the day. The escalation remains dependent on how heavily the expanding solar cloud intersects the Sun-Earth line. Advanced modeling indicates that the densest concentration of the solar material will pass south and east of Earth, which could potentially mitigate the most severe atmospheric impacts.
Prior to the arrival of the shock, the near-Earth conditions are calm but unsettled. The solar wind, which has been elevated by the waning influence of an earlier interplanetary CME, decelerated from peak speeds of 630 kilometres per second down to a stable baseline of roughly 540 to 550 kilometres per second. The solar wind density remained low at approximately one particle per cubic centimetre. The period of quiet conditions in the planetary geomagnetic field is expected to end abruptly. The incoming shockwave will rapidly accelerate solar wind velocities, and compress the sunward side of the Earth’s magnetosphere.
Magstorm to pass by 10 June
The enhanced, turbulent conditions are forecasted to persist throughout 9 June, before gradually subsiding on 10 June. Despite the looming geomagnetic disruption, secondary space weather indicators show normal readings. High-energy solar proton fluxes at geostationary orbit are registering low amounts of flux. Similarly, the electron fluences in the radiation belt persists at moderate levels, and the ionosphere has remained stable, with no shortwave fadeouts recorded. Observations confirm that there are no geoeffective coronal holes that can pile on to the incoming storm. The CME has aurora chases excited, and hopefully this geomagnetic storm will not be as much as a dud as the previous one.
