New Delhi: El Nino has returned as a major weather worry for India, with the Centre asking states to prepare early for weak rainfall, farm stress and possible
price pressure. The concern has grown after the monsoon started slow, with India recording a 35 per cent rain deficit on June 16.
The India Meteorological Department has forecast the southwest monsoon at around 90 per cent of the long-period average. That points to a below-normal season. This can mean delayed sowing, resulting in costlier food. It can also mean longer heat spells, water stress and higher risk for people who work outside.
El Nino and India: Why the alarm is growing
El Nino is a warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean. In India, it is often linked to a weaker monsoon. It does not always cause drought, but it can disturb rainfall badly. Some years escape with less damage. Some years hurt crops.
This year, the Agriculture Ministry has flagged 12 states where the impact may be relatively severe during the Kharif season. These include Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Odisha, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Maharashtra.
Officials are preparing contingency plans for 326 districts. That is a big number. It means district teams may soon guide farmers on crop choices, water saving, intercropping and soil moisture management.
What farmers are being told to watch
The Centre has asked states to prepare district-level plans, especially for rain-deficient regions. The focus is likely to be on:
| Concern | Likely response |
|---|---|
| Weak rainfall | Crop-wise contingency plans |
| Water shortage | Water conservation and moisture management |
| Crop loss risk | Alternative crop patterns |
| Price pressure | Review of food stocks and subsidy impact |
| Fertiliser stress | Advance supply to vulnerable districts |
The government is also pushing cotton and pulses in suitable areas.
Why June may not decide the full monsoon
The weak June rain has raised concern, but June alone does not decide the full season. Past El Nino years have shown mixed results. In 2015, food-grain output fell after severe El Nino. In 2023, India managed the impact better with planning and contingency steps.
The monsoon also moves in phases. This year, it reached Kerala on June 4, but its northward movement slowed after that. Maharashtra, Konkan and parts of central India saw the main shortfall as the monsoon lost pace.
The real test will come in the next few weeks. If rains improve, the damage may stay limited. If the deficit grows, India may face a tougher mix of farm stress, food inflation and public health worries.
