New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall across India in September while temperatures are expected to remain
above average in most parts of the country.
According to the weather department’s monthly forecast issued on Monday, rainfall across the country is likely to be below 91% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA for September is 167.9 mm, based on rainfall data recorded between 1971 and 2020.
The forecast does not mean that every part of the country will remain dry. Some areas of northwest, northeast, east, east-central and southeast peninsular India are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
Temperatures likely to stay high
The IMD has predicted above-normal monthly average maximum temperatures over most parts of the country. The minimum average temperatures are also likely to remain above normal in several regions.
However, some parts of northwest, west-central and northeast India could see minimum temperatures that are normal or below normal, according to the forecast.
The weather department’s model also points towards generally drier conditions during the month, along with higher maximum temperatures across large parts of India.
El Nino conditions in focus
The IMD said strong El Nino conditions are currently present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are above normal and the conditions are expected to become stronger in the coming months.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Forecasts from the IMD’s Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) suggest that neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue through September.
However, some international climate centres have indicated that the IOD could shift towards a positive phase from September onwards.
What below-normal rainfall could mean
A weaker rainfall month could create pressure on agriculture, water supplies and hydropower generation. It may also affect drinking water availability and ecosystems, while hotter conditions could increase the risk of heat stress in some areas.
The IMD has advised authorities and other stakeholders to focus on water conservation, efficient management of available resources and agricultural contingency plans.
The weather department is expected to issue its outlook for the Northeast Monsoon season, covering October to December 2026, along with the October rainfall and temperature forecast towards the end of September.
