New Delhi: After weeks of political slugfest with accusations and counter accusations and ‘Singham’ vs ‘Pushpa‘ battle, West Bengal will vote in the second
and final phase of assembly elections on Wednesday, April 29. After a record turnout in the first phase polling on April 23, Election Commission has made arrangements for another day of historic voting.
After the first phase of voting both TMC and BJP expressed confidence of forming the next government with both claiming the record votes went in their favour. The counting on May 4 and the subsequent result will prove one part right and the other wrong.
The numbers
The second phase will witness polling on 142 assembly constituencies, in the first phase 152 seats went to polls. The EC has deployed more than 3.5 lakh security personnel in the state for the smooth conduct of the polls. Personnel from CRPF, SSB, RPF, ITBP and CISF have been stationed across districts.
In Kolkata, around 35,000 security personnel have been deployed. Around 142 general observers and 95 police observers have been appointed to monitor the poll process, while 2,550 companies of central forces are guarding the state.
The contenders
While there are multiple parties that are contesting the assembly elections in the state, the contest is likely between TMC and BJP.
While TMC and Mamata Banerjee will be aiming to win a fourth-term in power the BJP will be looking to install its government for the first time.
The campaigning saw both BJP and TMC targeting women voters. This bloc of voter has been with TMC and Mamata since she stormed to power in 2011. The BJP believes that after recent crime against women in the state, this segment will shift towards it.
Both parties have announced several sops for women.
TMC
For Mamata, it is not another poll but a fight to protect its fortress. In recent years she has emerged as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s fiercest critics and has pushed these elections as one for Bengal’s identity.
One seat to watch out for will be Bhabanipur. Chief minister Mamata Banerjee will defend her home ground against leader of opposition in Bengal Suvendu Adhikari. In 2021, Mamata was defeated by Suvendu from another seat — Nandigram — so, TMC won’t be taking any chances.
TMC possesses many advantages over BJP in these elections. It has a strong grassroot organisation. It is a data driven organisation. In the past elections the party also had a command over minority and women votes and they will be hoping that this trend continues.
The party will also be under pressure as anti-incumbency sentiments might dent its chances in the polls. Several leaders of the party are facing corruption allegations while questions have also raised over governance lapses and increase in crime against women. Another issue that the party is facing that SIR may have altered voter bases in major segments and the results might not be in party’s favour.
BJP
The BJP will be hoping to leave the ghost of 2021 assembly elections behind, when the party hoped to win the state. It came very short. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and subsequent bypolls, the party suffered from underwhelming performances.
The defeat was attributed largely to the lack of grassroot support and a strong local face. This time around the party has a local face in the name of Suvendu Adhikari. Since 2021, Adhikari, once a close confidant of Mamata, has been taking on TMC government. He has been targeting the party over law and order issue and corruption charges that the TMC leaders faces.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains BJP’s most important campaigner in the state. He did roadshows, addressed rallies and countered TMC’s narrative on many issues. Apart from PM Modi, the double engine pitch is BJP’s USP in these polls while anti-incumbency sentiments will likely further help party in the polls.
The party also suffers from several shortcoming, including an overreliance on PM Modi. The party also has not announced a CM face. No doubt Adhikari remains its most recognisable local face, the party has not announced his name as a CM candidate.
Others
Apart from these two heavyweights, others in the fray include CMP, CPI, Congress, AIMIM and Humayun Kabir’s party.
While these parties will get some votes and might even win a few seats, none are expected to affect the outcome.
The verdict
After voting concludes at 6 pm on Wednesday, the parties will be hoping to be on the top of the podium on May 4. If TMC will be able to retain its fort, it will be another feather in the cap of Mamata Banerjee and propel her to become the most important opposition face in the country.
For BJP, it will be an opportunity to cement its legacy in the political history of India. Bengal has eluded the party everytime. It is one of the few states where the party has never been part of any governments.
