New Delhi: Polling in Kerala is in full swing. It’s a high-stakes Assembly elections, with 2.71 crore electorate set to decide the fate of 883 candidates
in a closely watched three-way contest.
There are 140 Assembly seats, and the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) currently holds 99 seats. It is looking to come to power for the third time in a row, under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), with 41 seats, is seeking to wrest power from LDF. The BJP-led NDA is trying to increase its voter support.
As the elections have got underway, let us look at 6 key factors that could decide the poll outcome.
1. Anti-incumbency: The UDF has been harping on anti-incumbency factor that they claim will help them reclaim the seat. Even though the state has historically followed “revolving door” pattern every five years, it was broken by LDF in 2021 when CM Vijayan won back-to-back terms. He is looking to script a record of sorts by winning for the third consecutive term. However, it will be a tough contest, as voter fatigue has set in and the electorate apparently want a change.
Changes in voter loyalties can intensify the anti-incumbency sentiment. The narrative of UDF that the debt has mounted in the last 10 years could sway voters.
2. Core poll issues: The LDF’s campaign was focused on development, infrastructure, and poverty reduction. Its social security pensions, and welfare schemes also work in LDF’s favour. On the other hand, the UDF has been hitting out at the government for the growing unemployment rate among youth, and the financial stress that the state is reeling under. Apart from this, issues such as the entry of women into the Sabarimala temple and the gold smuggling case continue to assume political significance. These will go a long way in deciding the mandate.
Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan casts his vote during the state Assembly elections, in Kannur district, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (PTI Photo)
3. BJP splitting votes: The BJP is trying to make inroads into the state. It is contesting on a sizeable number of seats. Suresh Gopi’s Lok Sabha win, along with the party’s recent win in the Thiruvananthapuram corporation, has given it a new impetus. It may not bag many seats, but its presence in the poll fray is enough to cut into votes and turn contests into three-cornered battles.
4. Youth perception: The first-time voters as well as the youth will go out in large numbers to vote and register their angst against the high unemployment rate. Many of the young voters are unable to find jobs and looking for greener pastures abroad, mostly in the Gulf.
The UDF’s campaign to generate jobs for the young and bring investment into the state could resonate with the voters. Economic concerns, essentially revolving around jobs, may shape their choices at the ballot box.
5. Minority voters: The Christian electorate is likely to play a crucial role in the outcome of the elections. For many years, the UDF has relied on Christian voters to secure key constituencies. In this elections, this traditional alignment will be tested like never before. Political realignments, and perceptions of communal favouritism are set to challenge the UDF’s long-held advantage. The LDF has apparently made inroads into the Christian vote bank through its alliance with Kerala Congress (M).
Then there are Muslim voters as well, whose choices will be equally decisive. Debates around the Waqf Board are likely to emerge as a key issue shaping their electoral options.
6. Middle East tensions: The conflict in West Asia is still raging, despite the ceasefire. The airfares have mounted and uncertainty over flight schedules continue. Against such a backdrop, very few overseas voters have travelled to Kerala to cast their ballots. In the past, chartered flights were arranged to bring them to Kerala, but this time no such arrangements have been reported.
The non-resident Keralite (NoRK) population across the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is estimated at around 2 million. Turnout among registered overseas voters is set to touch record low. This will reflect on the overall election result.
