Oil prices remain low due to weak demand and high supply, even as geopolitical conflicts persist across regions such as the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine,
according to Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group.
Talking to CNBC TV18, he said oil prices are currently around $50 and noted that global conflicts have not changed the underlying dynamics of the oil market.
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Bremmer said the United States’ control over Venezuelan oil reserves is not likely to create near-term conflict or materially affect oil supplies, as the market remains well supplied. He added that while the US continues to invest in oil and gas, China is focusing its investments on batteries, nuclear energy, renewables and critical minerals, describing oil, gas and coal as “20th-century energies”. China, he said, is seeking to become an “electro state” rather than a petrostate.
On trade policy, Bremmer said he is not a legal expert but expects the US Supreme Court to constrain the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which he said was not intended to be used against more than 90 countries for political purposes. He said the court is unlikely to fully overturn all measures but also unlikely to give President Donald Trump a blanket approval.
Asked about rising tensions linked to oil and tariffs in 2026, Bremmer reiterated that oil prices remain low because supply exceeds demand. He said Trump wants to work with China and is looking ahead to meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Bremmer said the implementation of what he described as the “Dondroe Doctrine” is already shaping US policy in Latin America, particularly in Venezuela, where the US is pressing for compliance on oil, drugs, migration and governance. He said this approach could also extend to Nicaragua, Cuba and Greenland.
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On China’s economy, Bremmer said the country’s deflationary pressures are expected to deepen in 2026, with growth driven by exports of cheap manufactured goods that create large trade surpluses and push economic pressures onto other countries.
Commenting on India, Bremmer said the country is in a relatively strong position in a G-zero world, citing stable relations with the US, leadership in the Global South, improving ties with China, and policy continuity.
