No team in the NFC was worse than the Atlanta Falcons over the first two games of the season. However, they have managed to turn their 2026 outlook around overnight after upsetting the Green Bay Packers and getting a marvelous game from starting quarterback Michael Penix in his return to the lineup.
Even though they looked historically bad Weeks 1-2, the Falcons are now technically tied at the top of the division - and one of their rivals (Tampa) already appears to be out of the race.
Going into Week 4, Austin Mock at The Athletic's favorite futures bet is for the Falcons to win the NFC South (+370).
"The biggest concern that I have for the Falcons is their defense and that they have over-performed through the first three weeks. But as we saw in
their 35-14 rout of the Green Bay Packers last Thursday, Michael Penix Jr. brings a new gear to their offense with his ability to get the ball into their playmakers’ hands and consistently move up and down the field. Now, I’m not suggesting that the Falcons are world beaters. But considering the state of the NFC South, there is a chance they’re the best team in the division, especially if Penix Jr. grows as a quarterback."
This echoes what we were claiming all offseason - that this is the most-talented team in the division - it was just hidden due to their unfortunate quarterback situation.
That take admittedly seemed ridiculous during the first two games of the season but all it took was one sharp game at QB to completely change the narrative about this team. With a competent option under center we saw what Atlanta's top two players (Bijan Robinson and Drake London) could do at their best and we also witnessed another feisty performance from the most-underrated defense in the NFL this year.
Elsewhere in the division, the Carolina Panthers offense is shockingly good, but they have been bitten hard by the injury bug. It appears they've lost star cornerback Jaycee Horn for the season, putting them down three defensive starters with Nic Scourton on IR and Turk Wharton still out after undergoing neck surgery.
Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints definitely have their guy in Tyler Shough. However, they're also getting hammered by injuries and they no longer have the roster depth to absorb those kind of losses.
For the sporting type, this is one bet that's definitely worth considering.
This article originally appeared on Falcons Wire: NFL analyst says Falcons may be best team in NFC South
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