Going into the 2026 NFL season, the Atlanta Falcons have the second-longest playoff drought in the league, and the New York Jets don't even really count at this point so we might as well consider it the longest.
Therefore, it should come as no surprise that there's not much faith in the Falcons this year, despite having the strongest roster in a weak division.
According to an analysis by Brad Gagnon at Bleacher Report, he's putting their over/under win total for this season at under 7.5 - and his confidence level in that projection is high.
"The Falcons have managed to win seven-plus games in each of their last five seasons, and now they could also benefit from fresh faces in the front office, the coaching staff and at quarterback. At the very
least, they'll have competition with Tua Tagovailoa joining Michael Penix Jr. under the tutelage of Kevin Stefanski... This isn't a great team, but it certainly has the talent to once again remain within reaching distance of .500 in the worst division in the NFL."
It's difficult to argue their win total should be significantly higher given the difficult nature of projecting the value of a new head coach and the question marks at quarterback.
New head coach Kevin Stefanski should be able to get at least two more wins out of this group than Raheem Morris did last year - provided that the team isn't hit hard by injuries and they get an at-least passable performance at quarterback from either Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix.
That would put the Falcons at 10 wins, which should be more than enough to win a relatively soft NFC South - especially with the Carolina Panthers facing a far more-difficult schedule than last year when they won the division with a -69 point differential.
However, if they don't get what they need at quarterback and a few key pieces go down, we could see Atlanta finishing as low as 6-11.
This article originally appeared on Falcons Wire: NFL analyst projects Falcons' win total for 2026 season
