Notre Dame might be No. 3 in the latest US LBM Coaches and Associated Press polls, but ESPN thinks otherwise when it comes to their projected College Football Playoff bracket.
Heather Dinich compiled ESPN’s updated CFP projections after Week 3
, and the Fighting Irish (3-0) are sitting at No. 6. Notre Dame is predicted to have an on-campus CFP first-round matchup against No. 11 USC, with the winner projected to face No. 3 Ohio State in the quarterfinals.Dinich noted in her report that it bodes well for Notre Dame to have a 2-0 record against Big Ten opponents, following respective victories over Wisconsin (41-13) and Michigan State (27-10).
“While wins against unranked Wisconsin and Michigan State don't exactly make a statement, they’d still likely
be considered respectable in the committee meeting room as higher value opponents than some other contenders have faced,” Dinich said. “Notre Dame hasn't played an FCS opponent like some teams have. The committee would also consider the challenge of playing Wisconsin at Lambeau Field but recognize Notre Dame's overall stats are partially inflated from a 52-0 win against Rice.”
Dinich mentioned that the Fighting Irish could crack the CFP top five in the future with their “elite” defense and a CJ Carr-led offense that’s currently top 10 in efficiency.
However, according to ESPN Analytics, Notre Dame’s remaining schedule is 50th in the country. That being said, Dinich noted that the committee will “highly value” victories against upcoming opponents No. 9 BYU and No. 6 Miami – two teams that have made strong cases for the CFP so far.
“The head-to-head tiebreakers would also be important to the seeding process on Selection Day,” Dinich added.
Dinich currently has Texas, Ole Miss, Ohio State, Georgia and Miami as her top-five CFP teams.
If the playoff were today … this is what I think the selection committee would do: https://t.co/GmNLP43K1M
— Heather Dinich (@CFBHeather) September 20, 2026
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This article originally appeared on Fighting Irish Wire: ESPN has Notre Dame outside of top-5 in post-Week 3 CFP projections
