Kentucky football travels down to Norman to face the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday, and both of these teams have plenty of momentum coming into this matchup. Arguably no team in the country has more momentum on their side than the Wildcats right now, coming off back-to-back walk off two-point conversions for the win in overtime. However, Oklahoma came off of their bye week and got a massive win over Texas in the Red River Rivalry game. With that being said, do not let the final score fool you, Oklahoma is still really struggling on offense.
Oklahoma's offense will be the worst unit on the field this Saturday, and despite a big 27-24 win over Texas, the issues have not been fixed. The Sooners have scored just six offensive touchdowns since week
two. They have only scored over 20 points twice this season, this was week one against UTEP and against Texas where they needed a blocked punt for a touchdown and a pick six to do so. This is a night game in Norman and will present a lot of adversity for Kentucky. The matchup to watch is the Kentucky offense versus the Oklahoma defense, but we will get into that side later.
Basically every single offensive metric that you look at to determine offensive success, the Sooners rank bottom five in the SEC. Oklahoma ranks dead last in the conference in all of these statistics: Success rate, Rush SR%, EPA per rush, Explosive play rate and 1D+TD%. They also rank bottom five in the SEC in these statistics: EPA per play, EPA per dropback, Pass SR%, 3rd Down conversion rate, Early Down conversion rate and yards per play. This might be the worst offense Kentucky faces this season unless they can turn things around quickly.
Oklahoma ranks first in the SEC in three-and-out rate and negative play percentage. The Sooners have the worst yards per carry average in the FBS. This is a stark contrast because Kentucky's defense ranks top five in the SEC in explosive % allowed and negative % forced. Kentucky's defense has excelled at three things this season: forcing turnovers, forcing negative plays and limiting explosives.
This Oklahoma offense has struggled, but they do have some playmakers. The number one guy that should scare you, ironically, is number one Isaiah Sategna. Sategna is a dynamic receiver who is the one guy that can consistently create separation and he is dangerous with the football in his hands. Kentucky has to know where Sategna is on every snap because he is lightning in a bottle when he gets his hands on the football.
John Mateer is a reckless but talented quarterback, he made the best throw of his season against Texas to set up the Sooners for the game winning field goal. Mateer threw a perfect back shoulder to Sategna from the far hash. Mateer has arm talent and is a dangerous runner, he immediately looks to run when a pass play breaks down. However, Mateer is extremely turnover prone, even moreso than LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt.
Kentucky forced two turnovers on Leavitt, and they need to repeat that on Saturday. They have done a great job of forcing turnovers all season, they did it against Keelon Russell, Marcel Reed, LaNorris Sellers and Leavitt. This defensive line has to get pressure on Mateer to force him to play recklessly. The Wildcats have struggled with scrambling quarterbacks this season, but they were better last week against Leavitt--same thing applies this week with Mateer.
Oklahoma as we stated, averages the fewest yards per carry in all of FBS. This is a game where Kentucky should be able to make Oklahoma one dimensional, which is a massive advantage for the Wildcats. The defense has to make Mateer uncomfortable in the pocket and they will have a great chance to win this football game. Kentucky's defense has the opportunity to have their best performance of the season this Saturday.
This article originally appeared on UK Wildcats Wire: Oklahoma offense preview: Can Kentucky keep the Sooners struggling
