Just as everyone expected, Kentucky football entered their bye week with a 7-1 record and currently sit as a top ten team in college football after beating Vanderbilt. This is setting up the biggest November in Kentucky football history. The coaching staff does some self scouting during the bye week, so we will do the same by looking at advanced statistics. Let's see where Kentucky's offense sits in the SEC through eight weeks of the season, what are they doing well and where they can improve.
Success Rate - 49.5% (3rd in the SEC)Pass SR % - 46.3% (7th in the SEC)Rush SR % - 53.5% (1st in the SEC)EPA/play - +0.230 (6th in the SEC)EPA/pass - +0.244 (8th in the SEC)EPA/rush - +0.233 (2nd in the SEC)Yds/play - 6.05 (9th in the SEC)Yds/pass - 6.5
(12th in the SEC)Yds/rush - 5.6 (4th in the SEC)EXPL % - 12.5% (6th in the SEC)EXPL Pass % - 10.8% (8th in the SEC)EXPL Run % - 14.5% (5th in the SEC)
Kentucky has been extremely efficient when you look at success rate and expected points added (EPA) numbers. The yards per play is on the lower end of the conference, especially yards per pass which is bottom five in the SEC. Kentucky has to find bigger chunk plays down the stretch in the passing game, and that probably coincides with Kenny Darby being the only true yards after catch threat in this offense.
Kentucky has three receivers that are all more possession types with Nic Anderson, DJ Miller and Ja'Kayden Ferguson. Darby is clearly the most dangerous player with the football in his hands on this offense. The same can be true for the tight end combo of Willie Rodriguez and Henry Boyer, who struggle to create after the catch. I think the key moving forward is getting tight end Mikkel Skinner more involved down the stretch, he has shown YAC ability when he has gotten those opportunities this season.
The coaching staff is finding creative ways to get Skinner the football, we saw him take the toss against Vanderbilt and a sweep against Oklahoma. Both of those handoffs resulted in a first down. Skinner needs to get more targets in the passing game and more snaps in general. Kentucky's passing attack has to improve in this area coming off the bye week.
However, efficiency is what Kentucky hangs their hat on. This offense is built off movement, unique formations and death by a thousand cuts. Kentucky does that better than maybe any team in the country and it has led to a ton of offensive success. If they can create more explosive plays, this will be one of the most difficult offenses to stop in college football.
Points per Drive - 2.99 (5th in the SEC)Three-and-out % - 20.5% (8th in the SEC)Negative Play % - 7% (4th in the SEC)Early Conversion % - 52.4% (1st in the SEC)1D + TD % - 32.1% (7th in the SEC)3rd Down % - 34.4% (16th in the SEC)MOVE % - 56.2% (1st in the SEC)
Kentucky is top five in the SEC in points per drive, which is points scored per offensive possession. They clearly have the highest movement rate in the conference which is the combination of motion and shift rate, this is how Kentucky is able to generate yards by confusing defenses with their pre snap presentation. Kentucky has had a few three-and-outs per game, we saw that last week against Vanderbilt in their first two drives. It is not a terrible number but an area I am sure they want to improve on.
The Wildcats have been extremely efficient at avoiding negative plays, only three teams in the conference avoid negative plays at a lower percentage than Kentucky. This is critical for the offense and why they can win by moving the ball methodically down the field. Of course the third down conversion rate has been an area that the offense has struggled in all season and something that absolutely has to improve quickly. Kentucky combats this with the highest early down conversion rate in the SEC, they move the sticks on first and second down better than any team in the conference.
Kentucky has an efficient and effective offensive that is built on a creative scheme. This coaching staff is getting the most they can out of their personnel, which is really the highest compliment you can give to a staff. There are many areas they will focus on over the bye week, none more than finding ways to convert on third down scenarios. If Kentucky can tidy things up in those areas while still doing what they do best, this offense can hit another gear down the stretch.
Stats provided by secstatcat.com
This article originally appeared on UK Wildcats Wire: Self Scout: Analyzing the Kentucky offense through eight weeks
