Kentucky football is coming off the first bye week of the Will Stein era ranked top ten and heading into Neyland Stadium to take on the #16 Tennessee Volunteers. Neyland Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Wildcats in this series, they last won in 2020 but the last time they won in front of a packed house was in 1984; ironically, Coach Stein's father Matt Stein was on that Kentucky team. There is a lot at stake for both of these football teams as both are coming off of a bye week looking to make a playoff push in November. We will preview the Vols defense first, led by defensive coordinator Jim Knowles who has plenty of familiarity with Coach Stein's offense.
Coach Stein faced a Jim Knowles-led defense three times during his time at Oregon,
twice against Ohio State in 2024 and last season when Knowles was at Penn State. The Ducks won two of those three meetings, and Stein's offenses found success in the two wins while the one loss in the College Football Playoff got out of hand quickly. Stein's offenses averaged 27 points per game and 398 total yards per game in his three meetings against Knowles, and they did not turn the football over in any of those three games. Kentucky playing a clean brand of football as they have all season will be critical in this road environment.
In the first meeting between the two, the Ducks defeated Ohio State in Oregon and Stein's offense had 496 total yards and a 52% success rate which led to a 32-31 win. They met again in the CFP and the Ducks scored just 21 points, the offense put up 276 total yards of offense and had a 36% success rate. However, game script played a factor as Ohio State was unstoppable in the first half; the Buckeyes scored on six of their first seven possessions to jump out to a 34-0 lead. Last season against Penn State, Stein's offense had 424 total yards of offense and a 48% success rate scoring 30 points to win on the road in double overtime.
We get round four on Saturday, and this is a heavyweight scheme battle between two of the best minds in the country. History suggests that the Wildcats will be able to find offensive success as long as they don't get themselves in a hole early. We will preview Tennessee's offense next, but it is hard to imagine them scoring 30-plus points before half like Ohio State did in the CFP matchup in 2024. Regardless, a fast start is crucial for Kentucky in this football game.
Tennessee's defense is among the best in the SEC and will be the toughest matchup Kentucky has seen this season with the 100,000-plus fans behind them. They statistically rank near defenses like LSU and Oklahoma that the Wildcats have already faced this year. The Vols rank top five in the SEC in these categories: EPA/play allowed, EPA/dropback allowed, success rate allowed, pass success rate allowed, rush success rate allowed and explosive play rate allowed. Tennessee leads the SEC in negative play rate forced and 3rd down conversion rate.
Needless to say, Kentucky's offense will have their hands full on Saturday night and they have to play clean to be in position to win this game. There are a couple areas that Kentucky can exploit on Saturday. The Vols rank 7th in the conference in early down success rate, and that is a strength for the Wildcats as Kentucky leads the SEC with a 52.4% early down conversion rate. Tennessee also ranks 11th in the conference in EPA/rush allowed despite being top five in rush success rate allowed, this means that the Vols have been susceptible to allow chunk plays in the run game.
Kentucky has to find success on the ground and running back CJ Baxter will be a key player to watch in this game. The Wildcats have to get double teams on defensive tackle Xavier Gilliam, who is the best player on this Tennessee team. Gilliam ranks 11th in the country with 11.5 tackles for loss on the season. Gilliam also has six sacks and two forced fumbles this year. Gilliam followed Knowles to Tennessee from Penn State; he is one of the best defensive players in the country and a true game wrecker on the defensive line.
I truly believe this matchup is what the game comes down to, who wins the scheme battle between Stein and Knowles to give their team enough of an edge to win this game. Tennessee's defense plays fundamentally sound, they have just 31 missed tackles on the season which is the second fewest in the SEC. Kentucky's offense has also played fundamentally sound, they have not had a turnover in over a month of play and are one of the least penalized teams in the country. It is critical that this clean offensive operation travels to the hostile environment of Neyland Stadium.
Statistics from secstatcat.com
This article originally appeared on UK Wildcats Wire: Tennessee defense preview: Kentucky's Will Stein vs Jim Knowles
