Big 12 football bowl projections, CFP picture after Week 9 results

As more teams near six wins and bowl eligibility, projections for which bowl game each Big 12 team will play have changed.

ESPN released its updated playoff and bowl projections after Week 9's slate of games, as did CBS Sports and USA TODAY Sports. Utah is now the consensus top-seeded Big 12 team in the nation, with BYU making the playoffs as an at-large team. However, none of the analysts are predicting the Cougars will make a deep playoff run. They are more optimistic about Utah, with one analyst having them in the title game.

Here are their updated bowl projections. Among the Big 12 teams, Colorado, TCU, Iowa State and Kansas remain the only teams no outlet projects to make a bowl game.

Colorado Buffaloes

Oct 31, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders before the game against the Kansas State Wildcats at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

USA TODAY Sports projection: No projection

CBS Sports projection:

No projection

Bonagura projection: No projection

Schlabach projection: No projection

With a 3-5 record and only four games left in the regular season, it's no surprise Colorado isn't projected to make a bowl game. They still have to play Houston, which is one of the best teams in the Big 12. However, their other three games are against Arizona State, Cincinnati, and UCF, all of which are 2-3 in the Big 12 after the first nine weeks. So they still have a path to a bowl game, but beating the Sun Devils is essentially a must-win.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Oct 31, 2026; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Thomas Castellanos (4) hands to the ball to running back J'Koby Williams (20) in the second half against the Arizona Wildcats at Galaxy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

USA TODAY Sports projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon

CBS Sports projection: Alamo Bowl vs. USC

Bonagura projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon

Schlabach projection: Alamo Bowl vs. USC

Texas Tech still has a clear path to the Big 12 championship game if they win out and BYU loses a conference game. However, it is far more likely that they make the Alamo Bowl. The Red Raiders do not have a good history in the Alamo Bowl, losing two of the three times they have played in it. They are also winless against Oregon and USC. So this isn't an ideal bowl game for Texas Tech, and neither opponent is an ideal matchup.

UCF Knights

Oct 24, 2026; Orlando, Florida, USA; Central Florida Knights wide receiver Tyren Hornes (2) runs after a catch with Brigham Young Cougars cornerback Therrian Alexander III (1) defending during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Bounce House. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images

USA TODAY Sports projection: First Responder Bowl vs. Tulsa

CBS Sports projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Missouri

Bonagura projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. North Texas

Schlabach projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Army

At 4-4, UCF should be able to get into a bowl game for the first time since 2023. Their final four games are against Kansas, Arizona State, Iowa State and Colorado. None of these teams has a winning record. The Knights have never played in the First Responder Bowl or Armed Forces Bowl, but they have played in the Liberty Bowl twice, losing in 2007 and winning in 2010.

Baylor Bears

Oct 30, 2026; Orlando, Florida, USA; Baylor Bears running back Caden Knighten (11) jumps over Central Florida Knights cornerback Jayden Williams (2) during the second half at Acrisure Bounce House. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images

USA TODAY Sports projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Wisconsin

CBS Sports projection: First Responder Bowl vs. FAU

Bonagura projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Missouri

Schlabach projection: Texas Bowl vs. Florida

After their dominant win over UCF last week, the Bears are one win away from securing a bowl spot. They face Iowa State this weekend before finishing the season against back-to-back-to-back ranked teams, making a win over the Cyclones a must. They lost their most recent appearance in the Texas Bowl in 2024, but won their only appearance in the Cactus Bowl in 2016. Their only appearance in the Liberty Bowl was back in 1985.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Oct 31, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils quarterback Jake Fette (2) passes the ball against the Brigham Young Cougars during the second half at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images

USA TODAY Sports projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Oregon State

CBS Sports projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Fresno State

Bonagura projection: No projection

Schlabach projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Fresno State

At this point, it seems like Poinsettia Bowl or bust for the Sun Devils. They sit at 4-4, needing just two more wins to get into a bowl game. Their most winnable games are the next two weeks against Colorado and UCF before facing Oklahoma State and Arizona. If they lose to the Buffaloes or the Knights, it wouldn't be surprising if Arizona State didn't make a bowl game this year. If they did not make a bowl game, it would be the first time since joining the Big 12 in 2024 that the Sun Devils were not bowl-eligible.

Houston Cougars

Oct 24, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Houston Cougars running back Makhi Hughes (21) rushes during the third quarter against the Utah Utes at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images

USA TODAY Sports projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Wake Forest

CBS Sports projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Wake Forest

Bonagura projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. SMU

Schlabach projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. SMU

There is a pretty clear consensus about which bowl game the Cougars will play in. The Pop-Tarts Bowl is a prestigious bowl game, and either SMU or Wake Forest would be a quality opponent. If the Deacons' quarterback, Gio Lopez, is healthy, watching Houston's defense face Wake Forest's offense would be fun.

BYU Cougars

Oct 24, 2026; Orlando, Florida, USA; Brigham Young Cougars wide receiver Legend Glasker (1) scores a touchdown on a 28-yard play in the first overtime against the Central Florida Knights at Acrisure Bounce House. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images

USA TODAY Sports projection: No. 10 seed in the CFP vs. Alabama

CBS Sports projection: No. 8 seed in the CFP vs. LSU

Bonagura projection: No. 5 seed in the CFP vs. Boise State

Schlabach projection: No. 7 seed in the CFP vs. Wake Forest

None of these outlets have BYU as the top Big 12 team in the playoffs, meaning they get in as an at-large team. Opinions differ on how far the Cougars make it in the playoffs. While USA TODAY Sports and CBS Sports have BYU getting knocked out in the first round, both ESPN analysts have them winning the first round, but losing in the second. After their loss to UCF, serious questions remain about whether the Cougars are National Championship contenders. They could answer those questions with a win against Utah this weekend.

Kansas State Wildcats

Oct 31, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Members of the Kansas State Wildcats before the game against the Colorado Buffaloes at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

USA TODAY Sports projection: Independence Bowl vs. Liberty

CBS Sports projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Memphis

Bonagura projection: Independence Bowl vs. UConn

Schlabach projection: No projection

Kansas State is currently 4-4, but has a 1-4 record in the Big 12 and an issue at quarterback due to injuries. Those injuries may have cost them the game against Colorado, even though fourth-string quarterback Blake Barnett played after Dillon Duff was benched. The Wildcats face Oklahoma State this weekend before taking on TCU, Arizona and Iowa State. Their best chances to win would be against the Horned Frogs and the Cyclones. If they lose either game, Kansas State could miss a bowl game for the second year in a row.

Utah Utes

Oct 31, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Utah Utes running back Daniel Bray (5) runs with the ball against the Cincinnati Bearcats in the second half at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

USA TODAY Sports projection: No. 6 seed in the CFP vs. Ole Miss

CBS Sports projection: No. 3 seed in the CFP vs. Notre Dame

Bonagura projection: No. 2 seed in the CFP vs. Indiana

Schlabach projection: No. 4 seed in the CFP vs. Kentucky

Utah is now the consensus top team in the Big 12. All outlets except USA TODAY Sports project the Utes to have a first-round bye. Both CBS Sports and USA TODAY Sports project Utah to get knocked out in the second round. However, ESPN's analysts have them going a little further, with Schlabach predicting they will make it to the semifinals and lose to Miami. Bonagura projects Utah to reach the National Championship game against Miami.

So far this season, the Utes look like a championship-caliber team, but their game against BYU will be their biggest test yet.

Arizona Wildcats

Oct 31, 2026; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Arizona Wildcats defensive back Taye Brown (6) and defensive end Tre Smith (3) react in the first half of the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Galaxy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

USA TODAY Sports projection: Sun Bowl vs. Duke

CBS Sports projection: Sun Bowl vs. SMU

Bonagura projection: Sun Bowl vs. Virginia Tech

Schlabach projection: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Missouri

Their loss to Texas Tech essentially knocked the Wildcats out of the Big 12 Championship conversation. Still, they could land a solid bowl game. The most likely bowl game right now is the Sun Bowl. Arizona has lost all three Sun Bowl appearances, and it hasn't played in the game since 1992. Maybe they could have some redemption this year.

Cincinnati Bearcats

Oct 31, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback JC French IV (4) throws a pass against the Utah Utes in the first half at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

USA TODAY Sports projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Texas-San Antonio

CBS Sports projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Michigan

Bonagura projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Michigan

Schlabach projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Michigan

Cincinnati technically has not won enough games to be bowl-eligible, with only five wins so far, but they need one win in their final four games to land a bowl bid. Besides the projection from USA TODAY Sports, there seems to be a clear consensus on which game they will play in and who they'll play against. They have never played in the Cactus Bowl before or played against Michigan in a bowl game.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Oct 17, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. (3) runs the ball during the fourth quarter against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images

USA TODAY Sports projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Missouri

CBS Sports projection: Independence Bowl vs. UConn

Bonagura projection: Puerto Rico Bowl vs. UMass

Schlabach projection: Independence Bowl vs. Washington

After defeating TCU last week, West Virginia is one win away from becoming bowl-eligible. Three of their last four games are against ranked teams, but the Mountaineers also get to face Kansas, whom they should beat. As long as West Virginia takes care of business against the Jayhawks, they should be in one of these games. However, I doubt it will be the Liberty Bowl against Missouri. The Independence Bowl seems more likely.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Oct 31, 2026; Ames, Iowa, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys running back Caleb Hawkins (24) runs for a touchdown against the Iowa State Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

USA TODAY Sports projection: Texas Bowl vs. Texas A&M

CBS Sports projection: Texas Bowl vs. Tennessee

Bonagura projection: Texas Bowl vs. Tennessee

Schlabach projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Auburn

It is a shame Oklahoma State has two conference losses because it would be fun to watch quarterback Drew Mestemaker in the Big 12 Championship game or even a playoff game. He is one of the best quarterbacks in college football right now. But as Saturday's loss against Iowa State proved, Oklahoma State's defense has a lot to work on.

Contact/Follow us@BuffaloesWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page onFacebook for ongoing coverage ofColorado news, notes and opinions.

This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12 football bowl projections, CFP picture after Week 9 results