The latest round of bowl projections surfaced following Week 8 action in the Big 12 Conference.
BYU may have lost to UCF last week, but projections still put them in the College Football Playoff picture. Utah is also a consensus playoff selection, though projections differ on which Big 12 team will be top-seeded.
ESPN released its updated projections after Week 7, as did USA TODAY Sports and CBS Sports. According to ESPN, this is the first week BYU and Utah are projected to win a playoff game. One analyst projects Utah reaching the semifinals against Miami but not the national championship game. CBS projects BYU to lose in the first round and Utah to lose to Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl. USA TODAY Sports projects BYU to win in the first round but lose to Georgia
in the Peach Bowl.
Here are their updated bowl projections. Among the Big 12 teams, Colorado, TCU and Kansas remain the only teams no outlet projects to make a bowl game.
Colorado Buffaloes
USA TODAY Sports projection: No projection
CBS Sports projection: No projection
Bonagura projection: No projection
Schlabach projection: No projection
Colorado is the only Big 12 team that hasn't won a conference game. They are currently on a five-game losing streak after starting the year 2-0. The Buffaloes need to win four of their final five games to become bowl-eligible, and all their final opponents have winning records, starting with Kansas State this Saturday. It seems highly unlikely they'll go to a bowl game, which raises bigger questions for the program.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
USA TODAY Sports projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon
CBS Sports projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. SMU
Bonagura projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon
Schlabach projection: Alamo Bowl vs. USC
The general consensus is that Texas Tech will land in the Alamo Bowl after last week's loss to Cincinnati. Their defense, once seen as their strength, proved to be their Achilles' heel against the Bearcats. The Red Raiders have played in the Alamo Bowl three times, losing two, both to Iowa. However, they won their last Alamo Bowl appearance in 2010.
UCF Knights
USA TODAY Sports projection: First Responder Bowl vs. NC State
CBS Sports projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Army
Bonagura projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Missouri
Schlabach projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Army
After their upset win over BYU, they'll likely make a bowl game for the first time since 2023. They need only two more wins, and they still have to play Kansas and Colorado, two of the Big 12's worst teams. UCF has played in only 15 bowl games and has never played in the Armed Forces Bowl or First Responder Bowl. However, they have played in the Liberty Bowl twice, winning in 2010 and losing in 2007.
Baylor Bears
USA TODAY Sports projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Wisconsin
CBS Sports projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Oregon State
Bonagura projection: First Responder Bowl vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Mississippi State
Even though they are 4-3, I am starting to wonder if Baylor will even reach six wins and become bowl-eligible. They lost their last two games against TCU and Kansas, games they should have won. Now they face UCF, who just beat BYU, and Iowa State before finishing their season against BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston. Their game this Saturday against the Knights might be a must-win if they are going to make a bowl game.
Arizona State Sun Devils
USA TODAY Sports projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Oregon State
CBS Sports projection: No projection
Bonagura projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Fresno State
Schlabach projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Texas State
Sitting at 4-3, they could make a bowl game for the third year in a row. However, they need to take care of business with two more wins. Their best chances at a win are against Colorado and UCF. If they lose either, they will need a win against BYU, Oklahoma State, or Arizona. Regardless, the Sun Devils likely won't have more than six wins this year.
Houston Cougars
USA TODAY Sports projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. SMU
CBS Sports projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon
Bonagura projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. SMU
Schlabach projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. SMU
With two losses in the Big 12, Houston's chances of making the Big 12 Championship are effectively gone. However, they are still a strong candidate for the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Seeing the Cougars' defense face SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings, who has over 2,000 passing yards and 19 touchdown passes, would make for an interesting bowl matchup.
BYU Cougars
USA TODAY Sports projection: No. 7 seed in the CFP vs. Texas
CBS Sports projection: No. 8 seed in the CFP vs. LSU
Bonagura projection: No. 7 seed in the CFP vs. Wake Forest
Schlabach projection: No. 9 seed in the CFP vs. Utah
Despite their ugly loss to UCF, BYU is still in the playoff picture, and some analysts even project them to win in the first round. Their loss to the Knights seems more like a fluke than anything, given how sloppy they played and their unsportsmanlike penalties. Every team has a bad game sometimes, but they will need to be on their game in a few weeks when they face Utah.
Kansas State Wildcats
USA TODAY Sports projection: Independence Bowl vs. Liberty
CBS Sports projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Mississippi State
Bonagura projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. North Texas
Schlabach projection: First Responder Bowl vs. North Texas
Their conference record is poor, but Kansas State is undefeated outside of the Big 12. They need only two more wins to become bowl-eligible, and they still have Colorado, TCU and Iowa State on their schedule. They made four straight bowl games from 2021 to 2024 before falling short of bowl eligibility in 2025, so any bowl game would help the program.
Utah Utes
USA TODAY Sports projection: No. 11 seed in the CFP vs. Indiana
CBS Sports projection: No. 3 seed in the CFP vs. Notre Dame
Bonagura projection: No. 4 seed in the CFP vs. Georgia
Schlabach projection: No. 8 seed in the CFP vs. BYU
Utah is the top team in the Big 12 after beating Houston, while BYU and Texas Tech lost. They still have to play BYU, which could be a Big 12 Championship preview. Unless they suffer a surprising loss or two, the Utes seem like a sure thing to make the playoffs for the first time in the CFP era.
Arizona Wildcats
USA TODAY Sports projection: Sun Bowl vs. Duke
CBS Sports projection: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Tennessee
Bonagura projection: Sun Bowl vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach projection: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Missouri
At 6-1, the Wildcats are already bowl-eligible. They have played in the Sun Bowl three times, but are still looking for their first win. They defeated BYU in the 2008 Las Vegas Bowl, so that may be their preferred bowl game. If Arizona wins out, they could reach the Big 12 Championship, which would open the door to making the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bearcats
USA TODAY Sports projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Texas San-Antonio
CBS Sports projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Michigan
Bonagura projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Michigan
Schlabach projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Michigan
After their surprise win over Texas Tech, Cincinnati is one win away from bowl eligibility. The consensus is that they will play Michigan in the Cactus Bowl. They have never played in the Cactus Bowl before and have never faced the Wolverines in a bowl game. In fact, they've played Michigan only once, in 2017, and lost. This would be an interesting matchup, especially since Michigan's quarterback change. The Bearcats have lost their last four bowl games and are looking for their first win since 2019.
West Virginia Mountaineers
USA TODAY Sports projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Missouri
CBS Sports projection: Independence Bowl vs. California
Bonagura projection: Independence Bowl vs. UConn
Schlabach projection: Independence Bowl vs. Washington
West Virginia needs just one more win to get into a bowl game, most likely against Kansas. The Mountaineers seem most likely to end up in the Independence Bowl, but have a history in the Liberty Bowl. They have played in that bowl game three times, but have won only once, back in 2020 against Army. Watching them play Missouri would also be a fun game.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
USA TODAY Sports projection: Texas Bowl vs. Oklahoma
CBS Sports projection: Texas Bowl vs. Oklahoma
Bonagura projection: Texas Bowl vs. Tennessee
Schlabach projection: Texas Bowl vs. Oklahoma
There is clear consensus that Oklahoma State will play in the Texas Bowl and most likely face Oklahoma. They have played in the Texas Bowl twice, losing in 2019 and winning in 2023. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma have met 118 times, making it one of college football's oldest rivalries. After years apart due to conference realignment, college football fans would love to see this rivalry renewed in a bowl game.
Iowa State Cyclones
USA TODAY Sports projection: No projection
CBS Sports projection: First Responder Bowl vs. North Texas
Bonagura projection: No projection
Schlabach projection: No projection
Most likely, the Cyclones will not make a bowl game. They are 3-4 with their final games against Oklahoma State, Baylor, Cincinnati, UCF and Kansas State. ESPN Analytics does not favor Iowa State to win any of those games. If they lose to Oklahoma State on Saturday, the Cyclones will finish the season 0-5 against ranked teams.
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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12 football bowl projections, CFP picture after Week 8 results
