Week 4 opened the conference for most Big 12 teams. It was an interesting week for the conference, with Cincinnati remaining undefeated, West Virginia suffering their first loss of the season, and BYU becoming the undisputed favorite in the conference. At the same time, Utah is now projected to make the playoffs and the Red Raiders are not.
ESPN provided its updated projections for the playoffs and every bowl game, as did USA TODAY Sports and CBS Sports. CBS's projections generally differ from the rest. But they all agree that Texas Tech will make the Alamo Bowl and that BYU will go to the College Football Playoffs as the projected Big 12 Champion. Most project the Cougars to face Florida.
Let's get into their updated bowl projections after Week
4 of the college football season. Among the Big 12 teams, only Colorado and Kansas are not projected to make a bowl game by any analyst. CBS is the only outlet that projected Iowa State to make a bowl game.
Colorado Buffaloes
USA Today projection: No projection
CBS projection: No projection
Bonagura projection: No projection
Schlabach projection: No projection
After starting the season 2-0, Colorado has dropped their last two games against Northwestern and Baylor. Their offense has struggled in every game against a Power Four team, and after Julian Lewis' game against the Bears, the Buffaloes might be considering a change at quarterback. Their next two matchups are against ranked opponents, which does not help their bowl chances. Colorado will need some upsets to reach six games with their schedule.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
USA Today projection: Alamo Bowl vs. UCLA
CBS projection: Alamo Bowl vs. UCLA
Bonagura projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon
Schlabach projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon
The evolution of the Red Raiders' bowl projection is quite fascinating. They entered the season as the favorites to win the Big 12 and go back to the playoffs. Now, there seems to be a consensus that they will not make the playoffs and instead play in the Alamo Bowl. Perhaps this is because of quarterback Will Hammond, who has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns through the first four games. But Texas Tech shouldn't be written out of playoff contention.
UCF Knights
USA Today projection: First Responder Bowl vs. Florida State
CBS projection: No projection
Bonagura projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Army
Schlabach projection: Raton Bowl vs. Western Michigan
After their victory over TCU, UCF is now 3-1, with Kansas, Iowa State, and Colorado still on their schedule. Based on their remaining schedule, it seems like the Knights can definitely get enough wins to become bowl-eligible. They lost in their only time in the Raton Bowl, but have never played in the First Responder Bowl or Armed Forces Bowl. So, either of those matchups would be interesting for them.
Baylor Bears
USA Today projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Wisconsin
CBS projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Army
Bonagura projection: First Responder Bowl vs. North Texas
Schlabach projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Northwestern
With their 23-13 win over the Buffaloes, Baylor is now 3-1 on the year. Based on their schedule and roster talent, the Bears can certainly reach at least six wins by the final stretch of the year, when they play BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston. They played in the Cactus Bowl once in 2016 and won. It would be interesting to see them play Wisconsin, which has one of the biggest upsets of the college football season so far with their win over Penn State.
Arizona State Sun Devils
USA Today projection: Sun Bowl vs. Louisville
CBS projection: No projection
Bonagura projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Fresno State
Schlabach projection: Hawai'i Bowl vs. North Dakota State
ASU was on bye last week after defeating Kansas 24-17 in London. Their schedule isn't easy, but they can definitely reach six wins, especially with the chemistry between quarterback Cutter Boley and Reed Harris. The Sun Devils have played in the Sun Bowl seven times, including last season when they lost 42-39 against Duke. This will likely be the most interesting matchup in these projections.
Houston Cougars
USA Today projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Duke
CBS projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Louisville
Bonagura projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Missouri
Schlabach projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Virginia Tech
Except for Bonagura, the common belief is that Houston will play in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. This team still seems to be flying under the radar despite going toe-to-toe with Texas Tech in Week 3. Their quarterback, Conner Weigman, has done well in the first few weeks, and they also have an elite run game, with seven different players scoring at least one rushing touchdown; Weigman leads the team with three. Do not count them out for the playoffs. But if they miss the playoffs, the Pop-Tarts Bowl seems very likely.
BYU Cougars
USA Today projection: No. 7 seed in the CFP vs. Florida
CBS projection: No. 9 seed in the CFP vs. Alabama
Bonagura projection: No. 8 seed in the CFP vs. Florida
Schlabach projection: No. 9 seed in the CFP vs. Florida
BYU has emerged as the favorite to win the Big 12 and be the highest-seeded among Big 12 teams in the playoffs. Most projections have them playing Florida, which would be an electric matchup against the Gators' high-powered offense, which has scored at least 40 points in every game. The Cougars also have a talented offense, led by quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin.
TCU Horned Frogs
USA Today projection: No projection
CBS projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Nebraska
Bonagura projection: No projection
Schlabach projection: No projection
TCU has two ugly losses, with their loss to North Carolina in Ireland to start the season and their loss to UCF. The Horned Frogs won time of possession, had more first downs, better third-down efficiency, more total yards, and nearly twice as many passing yards as the Knights. However, four turnovers killed their chances of winning. TCU has a talented roster, but they keep making simple mistakes that are costing them games. It is hard to see them making a bowl game this year.
Kansas State Wildcats
USA Today projection: Texas Bowl vs. Texas A&M
CBS projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Mississippi State
Bonagura projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Pittsburgh
Schlabach projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Auburn
Kansas State suffered their first loss of the season to Cincinnati in a game where they started with a 10-0 lead but couldn't come back on the final drive. It is hard to see them getting into the Pop-Tarts Bowl; the Liberty Bowl or Texas Bowl seem more likely at this point in the year. The Wildcats would probably prefer the Texas Bowl since they have won that game two of the three times they played in it, including against Texas A&M in 2016. They have yet to win in the Liberty Bowl despite playing in it twice.
Utah Utes
USA Today projection: No. 11 seed in the CFP vs. Indiana
CBS projection: Holiday Bowl vs. Wake Forest
Bonagura projection: No. 10 seed in the CFP vs. Alabama
Schlabach projection: Holiday Bowl vs. Pittsburgh
Utah has been a team on the rise since the start of the year. They are 4-0, with a talented quarterback in Devon Dampier who has nearly 900 passing yards in the first four games, plus nine passing touchdowns and only one interception. Their run game has been solid, and their defense is elite, as no one has scored 20-plus points against them so far. The Utes are definitely a playoff contender at this point in the year.
Arizona Wildcats
USA Today projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. San Diego State
CBS projection: Sun Bowl vs. SMU
Bonagura projection: Sun Bowl vs. Louisville
Schlabach projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Oregon State
Arizona hasn't played in the Sun Bowl since 1992 and has never won it, so they would probably prefer the Poinsettia Bowl. I would be shocked if they ended up playing San Diego State with how their season has started. Still, Oregon State is definitely an interesting possibility, as these former Pac-12 rivals have played each other 42 times since 1966.
Cincinnati Bearcats
USA Today projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Kentucky
CBS projection: No projection
Bonagura projection: Texas Bowl vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach projection: Independence Bowl vs. Washington
With a 4-0 record and Iowa State and Colorado still left on their schedule, it is hard to imagine that the Bearcats will not make a bowl game. Quarterback JC French would be interesting to watch in any bowl game he ends up playing in, as would Cincinnati's talented duo of running backs - Gi'Bran Payne and Cole Tabb. They have never played in the Independence Bowl or the Texas Bowl, so either matchup would be historic.
West Virginia Mountaineers
USA Today projection: Independence Bowl vs. Liberty
CBS projection: Texas Bowl vs. Auburn
Bonagura projection: Independence Bowl vs. Oregon State
Schlabach projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. New Mexico
West Virginia had a strong first three weeks but was dismantled in their first loss of the season to Oklahoma State. However, they have arguably one of the best run games in college football, led by Cam Cook, who leads the Big 12 in rushing, and quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr., who has over 400 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns. With how they dominate the line of scrimmage, the Mountaineers should have no problem making a bowl game.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
USA Today projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Texas-San Antonio
CBS projection: Independence Bowl vs. Washington State
Bonagura projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Northwestern
Schlabach projection: Texas Bowl vs. Texas A&M
After an embarrassing loss to start the season, Oklahoma State has gotten things together and now sits at 3-1, with arguably the best quarterback in the Big 12, Drew Mestemaker. However, he tends to throw a few interceptions. It would be fun to see the Cowboys play Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl, especially given their history in this game. Both times Oklahoma State has gone to the Texas Bowl, they faced Texas A&M. In 2019, Texas A&M won, but the Cowboys got their revenge in 2023.
Iowa State Cyclones
USA Today projection: No projection
CBS projection: First Responder Bowl vs. North Texas
Bonagura projection: No projection
Schlabach projection: No projection
Iowa State could have used the upset win over Iowa to make a bowl game. But they lost that game and don't appear to have the roster to reach six wins. If they happened to make the First Responder Bowl, it would be interesting to see how they do against North Texas. It just doesn't seem very lucky where the team is right now.
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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12 football bowl projections after Week 4 results
