After a week of upsets, including two top-10 teams losing, playoff and bowl projections have shifted significantly, though BYU remains heavily favored to be the Big 12's top seed.
ESPN released updated projection
s for the playoffs and every bowl game after Week 6, as did USA TODAY Sports and CBS Sports. Like previous weeks, CBS Sports' projections tend to differ from the rest, including having Utah as the only Big 12 team in the playoffs.As last week, ESPN analyst Kyle Bonagura is the only one projecting Iowa State to make a bowl game. USA TODAY Sports is now the only outlet projecting West Virginia to make a bowl game. CBS projected them to make a bowl game last week. In another change from last week, CBS now projects TCU to make a bowl game,
even though no outlet previously projected the Horned Frogs to play in one.
Here are their updated bowl projections. Among the Big 12 teams, only Colorado and Kansas are not projected by any outlet to make a bowl game.
Colorado Buffaloes
USA Today projection: No projection
CBS projection: No projection
Bonagura projection: No projection
Schlabach projection: No projection
With a 2-3 record and coming off last week's bye, Colorado isn't projected to make a bowl game. Every team left on their schedule is a Big 12 opponent who is projected to make a bowl game. Meanwhile, the Buffaloes still haven't won a conference game. Their next game is against Utah, which some project to make the playoffs. This season has gone downhill quickly for Colorado. If they cannot get things back on track offensively, they won't get anywhere close to making a bowl game.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
USA Today projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon
CBS projection: Alamo Bowl vs. USC
Bonagura projection: No. 11 seed in CFP vs. Ohio State
Schlabach projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon
This is a change from last week for the Red Raiders since none of the analysts had them in the playoff picture. Because Texas Tech had a bye week, this change likely reflects some of the Week 5 upsets, especially LSU's loss to Kentucky. The Red Raiders are still undefeated and have a good chance of playing in the Big 12 Championship game. If they make it, they'd have a good shot at the playoffs, since projections increasingly feature two Big 12 teams.
UCF Knights
USA Today projection: First Responder Bowl vs. Florida State
CBS projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Florida Atlantic
Bonagura projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. North Texas
Schlabach projection: Independence Bowl vs. California
After starting the season 3-1, the Knights have lost their last two games against ranked Big 12 opponents. They are on a bye week and will play BYU next. However, their final five games of the year are against Baylor, Kansas, Arizona State, Iowa State and Colorado. It seems reasonable to believe they could win at least three of these games and become bowl-eligible, especially with quarterback Keyone Jenkins, who has played well this season with 806 passing yards and eight touchdowns.
Baylor Bears
USA Today projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Wisconsin
CBS projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Texas A&M
Bonagura projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Pittsburgh
Schlabach projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Florida
Baylor is actually quite competitive this season. DJ Lagway has been a good quarterback for the Bears, and Nate Bennett filled in comparably when Lagway was out with an injury. Gavin Freeman also may be the best receiver in the Big 12 and one of the best in the country. Any of these bowl games would be fun to watch, but Baylor vs. Florida could be a high-scoring, electric affair.
Arizona State Sun Devils
USA Today projection: No projection
CBS projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Oregon State
Bonagura projection: No projection
Schlabach projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Oregon State
Arizona State won 11 games in 2024, including the Big 12 Championship, and had a good 2025 season with eight wins. However, they seem to be regressing, and it is a serious concern whether the Sun Devils will reach six wins. Their next game won't be any easier, as they face Texas Tech. Three of their final six games are against Kansas State, Colorado and UCF. None are no-brainers, but the Sun Devils can win them. A Poinsettia Bowl matchup against Oregon State would also be interesting, given the Beavers are playing better than anticipated this season.
Houston Cougars
USA Today projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. SMU
CBS projection: Texas Bowl vs. Tennessee
Bonagura projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon
Schlabach projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. SMU
Five teams are currently undefeated in conference play in the Big 12, making it a long shot for Houston to reach the Big 12 Championship, which is probably their only path to the playoffs. Houston's defense against SMU and their talented quarterback, Kevin Jennings, would be fun to watch in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
BYU Cougars
USA Today projection: No. 8 seed in the CFP vs. Texas
CBS projection: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Michigan
Bonagura projection: No. 9 seed in the CFP vs. Utah
Schlabach projection: No. 8 seed in the CFP vs. Ole Miss
CBS currently has Utah as the only Big 12 team in the playoffs, but they are in the minority. By and large, the consensus is that BYU will make the playoffs as the Big 12's highest-seeded team. Their matchup this week against Notre Dame will be their first real test of whether they are true playoff contenders. But as of right now, they certainly look the part.
Kansas State Wildcats
USA Today projection: Texas Bowl vs. Texas A&M
CBS projection: Independence Bowl vs. Washington
Bonagura projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Missouri
Schlabach projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Army
Kansas State started the season 3-0 but has dropped its last two games to Cincinnati and Houston. They should rebound against Kansas and face a relatively easy schedule, with only one ranked opponent left this year. The Wildcats have a strong history in the Texas Bowl, winning two of their three appearances, including one against Texas A&M.
Utah Utes
USA Today projection: No. 11 seed in the CFP vs. Indiana
CBS projection: No. 7 seed in the CFP vs. Ole Miss
Bonagura projection: No. 8 seed in the CFP vs. BYU
Schlabach projection: No. 11 seed in the CFP vs. Alabama
Ironically, Utah is the only Big 12 team every analyst projects to make the playoffs, despite generally not being considered the conference's best team. The Utes have continued to climb the rankings week after week with each dominant victory, including their most recent win against Kansas. They still have to get through Houston and BYU before the season ends; those two matchups should prove whether Utah is really as good as everyone thinks.
Arizona Wildcats
USA Today projection: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Oklahoma
CBS projection: Sun Bowl vs. Virginia
Bonagura projection: Sun Bowl vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach projection: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Missouri
Right now, Arizona seems like the most underrated team in the Big 12. They are 5-1, with their only loss coming against BYU in an 11-point game. The Wildcats can compete with anyone, but have a tough road with games against Texas Tech and Utah. Arizona likely won't be in the playoff conversation, but could still land the Las Vegas Bowl or the Sun Bowl.
Cincinnati Bearcats
USA Today projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Tennessee
CBS projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Wisconsin
Bonagura projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Michigan
Schlabach projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Michigan
Arizona handed Cincinnati its first loss in dominant fashion, but Cincinnati will have a chance to get back in the win column against West Virginia. This team will land a bowl game; it is just a matter of how good one will be. They have never played in the Cactus Bowl, but have a 1-1 record in the Liberty Bowl.
West Virginia Mountaineers
USA Today projection: Independence Bowl vs. Liberty
CBS projection: No projection
Bonagura projection: No projection
Schlabach projection: No projection
The Mountaineers have dropped off a cliff. After being undefeated a few weeks ago, they have now lost three straight games and are 3-3. Their game against Cincinnati is probably a must-win if they want to make a bowl game, since they also have to play Texas Tech, Houston, and Utah. If they can't play in a bowl game, it would be the second straight season West Virginia failed to qualify for a bowl game and could put head coach Rich Rodriguez on the hot seat.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
USA Today projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Texas-San Antonio
CBS projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. SMU
Bonagura projection: Texas Bowl vs. Kentucky
Schlabach projection: Texas Bowl vs. Oklahoma
The season started poorly in Week 1, but Oklahoma State has improved since then. They are still undefeated in conference play and have a shot at the Big 12 conference championship game, but they will need to beat Houston and Texas Tech to get there. A high-quality bowl game seems more likely. It would be fun to see Kevin Jennings against Drew Mestemaker in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Iowa State Cyclones
USA Today projection: No projection
CBS projection: No projection
Bonagura projection: Independence Bowl vs. UConn
Schlabach projection: No projection
Iowa State was surprisingly competitive against BYU. The Cyclones are better than people thought this season. However, at 3-3 with all remaining games against teams with winning records, Iowa State's outlook isn't promising. They would have to pull off a few upsets to get into a bowl game.
TCU Horned Frogs
USA Today projection: No projection
CBS projection: Frisco Bowl vs. North Texas
Bonagura projection: No projection
Schlabach projection: No projection
TCU is the only team with a losing record, and every analyst projects them to make a bowl game. The Horned Frogs gave BYU a fight but were also incredibly sloppy against North Carolina and UCF. They have talented players but lack the consistency to win four more games this year. TCU won't reach six wins.
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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12 football bowl projections after Week 6 results
