There appears to be a good amount of doom and gloom surrounding Penn State's football program after letting a win slip away over the weekend, resulting in a gut-wrenching loss to Wisconsin in Week 4. The loss was unsettling for many, but how much weight does it truly have on the outcome for the remainder of the season? The damage may not be as bad as you might think.
ESPN has updated its Football Power Index models, and that has led to updated win percentages for each game left in the 2026 regular season. The good news is Penn State is still the favorite in every remaining game on the schedule, except for one. If those numbers are accurate, then Penn State could be looking at a 10-2 regular season, which would be enough to at least pose a question
about the College Football Playoff, potentially.
Despite being the favorite in the majority of the remaining games, the win percentages did trend down this week with the latest updates. That was to be expected, of course, after taking a loss. That trend begins with this week's game at Northwestern. This game in particular took the steepest decline by going down about 14 percentage points and is close to being considered a toss-up. Northwestern's performance in a losing effort against Indiana helped move the needle a bit as well.
The one game where Penn State is no longer considered the favorite according to the win prediction percentages from ESPN is the road game against Michigan. The game was a 50/50 split with last week's numbers but now has swung a few points in Michigan's favor. Penn State's win percentage for the Michigan game is down to 47.2%.
Here is how ESPN's FPI matchup predictor forecasts Penn State's chances in every game remaining in the 2026 regular season entering Week 5.
Week 5 at Northwestern
- Friday, Oct. 2
- Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois)
- ESPN FPI: 55.9% (was 69.2%)
Week 6 vs. USC
- Saturday, Oct. 10
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 65.3% (was 70.4%)
Week 7 at Michigan
- Saturday, Oct. 17
- Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
- ESPN FPI: 47.2% (was 50.0%)
Week 9 vs. Purdue
- Saturday, Oct. 31
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 93.1% (was 93.9%)
Week 10 at Washington
- Saturday, Nov. 7
- Husky Stadium (Seattle, Washington)
- ESPN FPI: 70.5% (was 73.2%)
Week 11 vs. Minnesota
- Saturday, Nov. 14
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 88.6% (was 92.2%)
Week 12 vs. Rutgers
- Saturday, Nov. 21
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 93.3% (was 96.0%)
Week 13 at Maryland
- Saturday, Nov. 28
- SECU Stadium (College Park, Maryland)
- ESPN FPI: 87.1% (was 79.1%)
This article originally appeared on Nittany Lions Wire: Updated ESPN FPI win percentages for Penn State after first loss
