It is amazing what one week of college football can do for a team's expectations. On one hand, you could be Penn State and increase your national respect with a dominant all-around team victory at home against Marshall. On the other hand, you could be the subject of skepticism and ridicule even in victory, like Michigan after benefiting from a controversial call at the end of the game to escape with a wild last-second Hail Mary victory against Western Michigan. Penn State and Michigan will not face each other until mid-October, but the outlook on that game in Ann Arbor has already drastically changed according to one computer model.
Heading into Week 1, Penn State's win probability against Michigan was one of two unfavorable results for the Nittany
Lions. Following the events of Week 1, ESPN's recalulations of its Football Power Index have swung in Penn State's favor in its matchup predictions. In fact, Penn State's win probability for every remaining game on the schedule increased in Penn State's favor, except for one. And that one game that actually went down still has Penn State as the favorite. In addition to flipping the win probability in the Michigan matchup in its favor, Penn State has also flipped its win probability at Washington in its favor.
Here is how ESPN's FPI matchup predictor forecasts Penn State's chances in every game remaining in the 2026 regular season.
Week 2 at Temple
- Saturday, Sept. 12
- Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 94.2% (was 92.5%)
Week 3 vs. Buffalo
- Saturday, Sept. 19
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 98.1% (was 96.4%)
Week 4 vs. Wisconsin
- Saturday, Sept. 26
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 86.2 (was 80.3%)
Week 5 at Northwestern
- Friday, Oct. 2
- Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois)
- ESPN FPI: 82.1% (was 77.4%)
Week 6 vs. USC
- Saturday, Oct. 10
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 61.8% (was 63.4%)
Week 7 at Michigan
- Saturday, Oct. 17
- Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
- ESPN FPI: 56.3% (was 33.8%)
Week 9 vs. Purdue
- Saturday, Oct. 31
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 93.1% (was 89.1%)
Week 10 at Washington
- Saturday, Nov. 7
- Husky Stadium (Seattle, Washington)
- ESPN FPI: 59.3% (was 48.7%)
Week 11 vs. Minnesota
- Saturday, Nov. 14
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 89.7% (was 87.6%)
Week 12 vs. Rutgers
- Saturday, Nov. 21
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 96.2% (was 87.7%)
Week 13 at Maryland
- Saturday, Nov. 28
- SECU Stadium (College Park, Maryland)
- ESPN FPI: 82.1% (was 79.1%)
This article originally appeared on Nittany Lions Wire: Updated ESPN FPI predictions for every Penn State game in 2026
