ESPN FPI predictions for every Penn State football game in 2026

The computer numbers have been crunched and calculated, and Penn State has received some favorable predictions from ESPN's analytics and matchup prediction machine. There seems to be a bit of a consensus about Penn State being able to win nine or 10 games this season, but what if you dig a little deeper? What percentage chance does Penn State have to win each game on its schedule this fall?

ESPN's updated analytics figure Penn State will be favored in 10 of the 12 games scheduled this season. Both times Penn State is not given a favorable win percentage are when the Nittany Lions are on the road against a team ranked in the preseason polls: Michigan and Washington. The early November road trip to Washington is a bit of a toss-up, with Penn State receiving

a 48.7% chance of winning according to ESPN's analytics. The road trip to Michigan is considerably less optimistic, with Penn State receiving a 33.8% chance of winning against the Wolverines.

Penn State's biggest home game of the season will be played in mid-October against USC. The game has already been given the whiteout treatment, although the official start time has yet to be announced. But perhaps the home-field advantage is playing a significant factor in this one. ESPN's analytics give Penn State a somewhat surprising 63.4% chance of winning against the Trojans, a team many consider a potential Big Ten title contender.

Here is how ESPN's FPI matchup predictor forecasts Penn State's chances in every game during the 2026 regular season.

Week 1 vs. Marshall

Sep 7, 2024; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Helmets for the Marshall Thundering Herd rest on a charging table before the game against the Virginia Tech Hokies at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-Imagn Images

Saturday, Sept. 5
Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
ESPN FPI: 95.5%

Week 2 at Temple

Sep 5, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Temple Owls running back Jahad Thomas (5) runs with the ball during the fourth quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Lincoln Financial Field. Temple defeated Penn State 27-10. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Saturday, Sept. 12
Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
ESPN FPI: 92.5%

Week 3 vs. Buffalo

Buffalo quarterback Ta'Quan Roberson scrambles with the ball during the first half of a game against Kent State, Sept. 13, 2025, at Dix Stadium in Kent, Ohio.

Saturday, Sept. 19
Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
ESPN FPI: 96.4%

Week 4 vs. Wisconsin

Sep 20, 2025; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers mascot Bucky Badger does push ups following a field goal during the third quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Saturday, Sept. 26
Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
ESPN FPI: 80.3%

Week 5 at Northwestern

Nov 22, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; The Northwestern Wildcats celebrate after their victory against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

Friday, Oct. 2
Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois)
ESPN FPI: 77.4%

Week 6 vs. USC

Jul 28, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; USC Football head coach Lincoln Riley speaks during Media Days at Hilton Chicago. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Saturday, Oct. 10
Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
ESPN FPI: 63.4%

Week 7 at Michigan

Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman R Mason Thomas (32) chases after Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the University of Michigan Wolverines at Gaylord Family Ð Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025. Oklahoma won 24-13.

Saturday, Oct. 17
Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
ESPN FPI: 33.8%

Week 9 vs. Purdue

Sep 20, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Purdue mascot Purdue Pete cheers against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first half at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Saturday, Oct. 31
Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
ESPN FPI: 89.1%

Week 10 at Washington

The Washington Huskies take the field prior to the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Husky Stadium in Seattle on Sept. 27, 2025.

Saturday, Nov. 7
Husky Stadium (Seattle, Washington)
ESPN FPI: 48.7%

Week 11 vs. Minnesota

Iowa football travels to Minneapolis for an Oct. 24 game against Minnesota. The Golden Gophers were 8-5 last season.

Saturday, Nov. 14
Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
ESPN FPI: 87.6%

Week 12 vs. Rutgers

Dec 26, 2024; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights mascot Sir Henry during the Rate Bowl at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Saturday, Nov. 21
Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
ESPN FPI: 87.7%

Week 13 at Maryland

Dec 30, 2023; Nashville, TN, USA; The Maryland Terrapins mascot Testudo dances before the game against the Auburn Tigers at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Saturday, Nov. 28
SECU Stadium (College Park, Maryland)
ESPN FPI: 79.1%

Kevin McGuire is the lead writer for Nittany Lions Wire, part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow him on BlueSky, Threads or any of these other platforms.

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This article originally appeared on Nittany Lions Wire: ESPN FPI predictions for every Penn State football game in 2026