If you think you are having a difficult time getting an accurate reason for where Penn State's season is heading now that Big Ten play has arrived, you are not alone. Even the updated computer metrics from ESPN seem to be a bit all over the place with a couple of key games in the coming weeks for the Nittany Lions, and the latest movements on the metrics and matchup predictions may leave you scratching your head a bit.
For the most part, the changes to the updated matchup prediction percentages from ESPN's analytics department for each game remaining in Penn State's season have not changed more than a few percentage points here and there. And Penn State is still favored in every remaining game the rest of the way, with the exception of the road
game at Michigan that is now a pure toss-up according to these numbers. But the changes to two games in particular are pretty noteworthy.
Penn State will play on the road next week when they travel to Northwestern for the grand opening of the Wildcats' renovated Ryan Field on a Friday night. Penn State is still perceived to be the favorite, but the results of last weekend have swung the momentum a bit more in favor of the Wildcats. A week ago, ESPN gave Penn State an 80.8% chance of winning at Northwestern. Now the Nittany Lions are being given a 69.2% chance of winning that game.
The news of the loss of an injured Koby Howard certainly hurts Penn State's outlook, but Northwestern is also scoring some good points in the computers after a blowout win over Colorado last weekend. We'll see how this changes this weekend when Northwestern takes on Indiana.
Conversely, the odds for Penn State at home against USC have increased and continue to trend more and more in Penn State's favor by the week. ESPN's matchup prediction percentage favors Penn State with 70.4% chance of topping the Trojans in the whiteout game. That is up 10 percentage points from a week ago. It would seem USC's defensive struggles this season, most notably last weekend at Rutgers, as a significant factor.
Also of note is Penn State's road game at Washington. Still one of the trickier road trips of the season based on the distance alone, the prediction forecast continues to trend in Penn State's favor in early November. But there is a lot of football to be played between now and then.
Here is how ESPN's FPI matchup predictor forecasts Penn State's chances in every game remaining in the 2026 regular season entering Week 4.
Week 4 vs. Wisconsin
- Saturday, Sept. 26
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 87.6 (was 88.3%)
Week 5 at Northwestern
- Friday, Oct. 2
- Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois)
- ESPN FPI: 69.2% (was 80.8%)
Week 6 vs. USC
- Saturday, Oct. 10
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 70.4% (was 60.4%)
Week 7 at Michigan
- Saturday, Oct. 17
- Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
- ESPN FPI: 50.0% (was 54.0%)
Week 9 vs. Purdue
- Saturday, Oct. 31
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 93.9% (was 91.5%)
Week 10 at Washington
- Saturday, Nov. 7
- Husky Stadium (Seattle, Washington)
- ESPN FPI: 73.2% (was 68.6%)
Week 11 vs. Minnesota
- Saturday, Nov. 14
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 92.2% (was 92.6%)
Week 12 vs. Rutgers
- Saturday, Nov. 21
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 96.0% (was 96.0%)
Week 13 at Maryland
- Saturday, Nov. 28
- SECU Stadium (College Park, Maryland)
- ESPN FPI: 79.1% (was 75.3%)
This article originally appeared on Nittany Lions Wire: Big win prediction forecast changes for remaining Penn State schedule
