The computers have been updated with all of the data from Week 2 and Penn State's win percentage predictions for each remaining game this season have been updated by ESPN's analytics department. Going into Week 3, the future outlook continues to look promising for the Nittany Lions.
Penn State is still favored in every remaining game according to ESPN's win predictability metrics. However, a handful of games saw the winning percentage adjusted against the Nittany Lions following the results of Week 2. The gamer that saw the biggest negative adjustment was the final game of the regular season against Maryland, but the odds are still greatly in Penn State's favor at the end of the season.
More notably, Penn State's win percentage prediction for
the big home game against USC in Week 6 dropped 1.4 percentage points, but Penn State is still getting a 60% chance of topping the Trojans. The following week, at Michigan, continues to look like a coin flip according to the win percentages from ESPN. After Michigan's win over Oklahoma, Penn State is still forecasted as the slight favorite, but the percentage dropped from 56.3% to 54.0%.
Penn State's odds dropped in a few other games against Purdue and Rutgers, but Penn State is still a decisive favorite according to the win percentage prediction.
Here is how ESPN's FPI matchup predictor forecasts Penn State's chances in every game remaining in the 2026 regular season entering Week 3.
Week 3 vs. Buffalo
- Saturday, Sept. 19
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 98.3% (was 98.1%)
Week 4 vs. Wisconsin
- Saturday, Sept. 26
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 88.3 (was 86.2%)
Week 5 at Northwestern
- Friday, Oct. 2
- Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois)
- ESPN FPI: 80.8% (was 82.1%)
Week 6 vs. USC
- Saturday, Oct. 10
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 60.4% (was 61.8%)
Week 7 at Michigan
- Saturday, Oct. 17
- Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
- ESPN FPI: 54.0% (was 56.3%)
Week 9 vs. Purdue
- Saturday, Oct. 31
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 91.5% (was 93.1%)
Week 10 at Washington
- Saturday, Nov. 7
- Husky Stadium (Seattle, Washington)
- ESPN FPI: 68.6% (was 59.3%)
Week 11 vs. Minnesota
- Saturday, Nov. 14
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 92.6% (was 89.7%)
Week 12 vs. Rutgers
- Saturday, Nov. 21
- Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- ESPN FPI: 96.0% (was 96.2%)
Week 13 at Maryland
- Saturday, Nov. 28
- SECU Stadium (College Park, Maryland)
- ESPN FPI: 75.3% (was 82.1%)
This article originally appeared on Nittany Lions Wire: Updated ESPN FPI predictions for every Penn State game in 2026
