We're already a quarter of the way through the 2026 college football season. Most teams have 12 regular-season games on the schedule, and most have played three. We wait all Summer for this, and it flies by.
The sample is still small, but three games isn't nothing. Twelve quarters of football can be enough to evaluate a team (sometimes). It's time to look at playoff odds.
The CFP can't be made by Week 3, but it can certainly be lost. Any team with two losses already probably isn't in the mix. Of course, Notre Dame was 0-2 last year and still had a shot to make it on selection day, so we never really know.
Today, we'll look at each SEC team's chances of making the College Football Playoff. To do this, I've taken odds from FanDuel and DraftKings
and removed the vig to create implied probability. Let's jump in.
College Football Playoff Odds -- SEC Teams
Takeaways
- Georgia and Texas lead the way. Both have over a 70% chance of making the College Football Playoff. Both are 3-0, and Texas already has a signature win over Ohio State. Texas can afford two losses the rest of the way and be comfortable. The same could be said for Georgia, though the Dawgs' schedule has been easy so far. Georgia and Texas both face ranked opponents this week (Texas @ Tennessee) (Georgia vs. Oklahoma).
- Ole Miss and LSU are just below a coin-flip. LSU sits at 42% while Ole Miss is 48%. The Rebels' win over LSU was a massive boost for Pete Golding's squad. Power ratings don't love this Ole Miss team, and notching a win over a top-10-ranked team was big for the resume. Meanwhile, LSU can't really afford a loss when hosting Texas A&M this weekend.
- Vegas isn't high on Texas A&M after the Aggies lost to Kentucky in Week 3. Texas A&M began the year as a playoff contender, but the road is tough. A&M only has a 15% chance of making it.
- At 14.9%, Mississippi State is lurking as a dark horse. Nobody took the Bulldogs as a CFP contender entering the year, but with Kamario Taylor at QB, Mississippi State is one big win away from entering the conversation.
- Florida and Tennessee each sit at 30%. Both would see their odds dramatically increase with a win this weekend. Both hosts are top-five teams at home (Tennessee vs. Texas) (Florida vs. Ole Miss).
This article originally appeared on LSU Wire: College Football Playoff odds for every SEC team entering Week 4
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