LSU football vs Texas: How the Tigers

LSU's College Football Playoff hopes hang in the balance this weekend when Lane Kiffin's No. 21 Tigers host the No. 6 Texas Longhorns. At 6-3, coming off a loss to Alabama, LSU is desperate for a win. If LSU wins out and goes 9-3, the Tigers have a strong chance of making the playoff. But there's no margin for error.

LSU's offense had its worst outing of the year last week, scoring only 13 points and faltering in the red zone. The unit will be tested again with an elite Texas defense coming to town.

When LSU's defense is on the field, the Tigers should have the advantage vs. a Texas offense that's been inconsistent throughout 2026. Arch Manning and the Longhorns are talented, though, and the group has its moments.

As of Thursday morning, LSU is

a 4.5-point favorite. Vegas expects a low-scoring game, with the total set at 46.5 points.

Here's a statistical breakdown of LSU vs. Texas in Week 11.

LSU offense vs. Texas defense

Matchup Analytics

LSU Offense vs. Texas Defense

Stat	LSU offense	Texas defense	FBS avg
Drives
Points per drive	3.14#8	1.40#1	2.31
Series conversion rate	79.1%#9	64.4%#1	72.6%
Overall
EPA per play	+0.248#6	−0.093#1	+0.106
Success rate	49.6%#4	32.8%#1	42.2%
Yards per play	6.47#14	4.02#1	5.67
Passing
EPA per dropback	+0.255#10	−0.039#3	+0.114
Pass success rate	47.5%#8	35.4%#8	41.2%
Net yards per dropback	6.87#28	5.14#1	6.43
Sack rate	5.4%#41	7.9%#12	6.3%
Explosive pass rate (15+ yds)	19.2%#13	9.0%#1	15.7%
Rushing
EPA per rush	+0.199#19	−0.103#1	+0.111
Rush success rate	48.2%#12	32.3%#1	42.8%
Yards per carry	5.14#49	3.84#1	4.96
Stuff rate (runs of 0 or fewer yds)	16.8%#62	18.5%#36	17.0%
Explosive rush rate (10+ yds)	15.2%#23	9.3%#4	13.3%

• This matchup is strength vs. strength. LSU's offense ranks No. 8 nationally in points per drive and No. 9 in series conversion rate. Texas leads the nation in both of those categories.
• When LSU is throwing the ball, Texas has the advantage. The Longhorns rank No. 1 in EPA/pass allowed and passing success rate allowed.
• The Texas run defense is staunch, too, leading the nation in adjusted EPA/rush allowed. That's bad news for a struggling LSU rushing attack.

Texas offense vs LSU defense

Matchup Analytics

Texas Offense vs. LSU Defense

Stat	Texas offense	LSU defense	FBS avg
Drives
Points per drive	2.54#42	1.67#14	2.31
Series conversion rate	72.2%#69	65.9%#3	72.6%
Overall
EPA per play	+0.164#42	−0.071#3	+0.106
Success rate	44.3%#46	36.2%#13	42.2%
Yards per play	6.14#36	4.14#2	5.67
Passing
EPA per dropback	+0.177#42	−0.034#6	+0.114
Pass success rate	41.2%#74	37.1%#19	41.2%
Net yards per dropback	6.62#44	5.67#9	6.43
Sack rate	8.2%#125	9.1%#1	6.3%
Explosive pass rate (15+ yds)	17.7%#35	12.0%#7	15.7%
Rushing
EPA per rush	+0.180#33	−0.056#5	+0.111
Rush success rate	47.5%#16	35.6%#9	42.8%
Yards per carry	5.12#52	3.90#2	4.96
Stuff rate (runs of 0 or fewer yds)	17.7%#92	21.2%#6	17.0%
Explosive rush rate (10+ yds)	15.7%#15	10.7%#23	13.3%

• This matchup is intriguing. There are two sides to the Texas offense. On some drives, Arch Manning looks like the Heisman contender he was expected to be. On other occasions, he looks like a middling SEC quarterback.
• Top SEC defenses have been able to quiet this Texas offense, and Blake Baker's unit should be able to do the same.
• LSU needs to take advantage of Texas' offensive line. The Tigers rank No. 1 in adjusted sack rate, and Texas struggles to protect the QB. Princewill Umanmielen and Jordan Ross should get after Arch Manning.

This article originally appeared on LSU Wire: LSU football vs Texas: How the Tigers