The latest CFP rankings were released Tuesday night. Lane Kiffin's LSU football squad fell seven spots to No. 21 after a 31-13 home loss to Alabama.
Despite the fall, and despite LSU picking up its third loss of the season, the Tigers aren't out of the playoff race. With three games left, hope isn't lost—LSU can make a run.
The 2026 college football season has been defined by parity. There are few dominant teams. Big Ten teams are beating up Big Ten teams, and SEC teams are beating up SEC teams. There won't be enough one- or two-loss teams to fill the field. Fans should expect multiple three-loss teams from the Power Four to make the bracket.
If LSU wins out, the Tigers will be 9-3, with wins over Texas and Tennessee, two teams ranked in the top
10 on Tuesday night. Of the 9-3 contenders, LSU's resume would be among the best.
Now, winning out is the hard part. LSU hasn't proven it can beat teams like Texas and Tennessee yet, and it could just as easily lose both as win both.
LSU would need some help, too. The Tigers have head-to-head losses to Ole Miss and Kentucky, two teams that could be compared to LSU when the committee decides the final spots. If all three are sitting there at 9-3, the committee could give the nod to the teams that beat LSU.
And as it stands today, Kentucky and Ole Miss' most likely final records are both 9-3. That could be problematic for LSU.
But if there's a bunch of SEC teams sitting with a 9-3 record, and the committee has to pick two, head-to-head won't be the be-all and end-all. It can't be when dealing with a pod of teams that beat each other.
Take this scenario. Ole Miss wins out, finishing 9-3. Kentucky goes 2-1 over the next three weeks, finishes 9-3. LSU wins out, beating Tennessee and Texas. LSU, Tennessee, and Texas all finish 9-3.
Then you have five 9-3 teams all clustered near the top of the rankings. Ole Miss and Kentucky have H2H wins over LSU; Texas has a H2H win over Tennessee; LSU would have a H2H win over Tennessee and Texas. Any ordering of those teams using head-to-head doesn't make sense.
But LSU doesn't need to worry about scenarios yet. Just go 9-3, and there's a chance. If LSU handles its business, the Tigers will likely get the help they need.
Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee all have losable games this weekend. There's only an 18% chance all three win this weekend. Any loss from that group helps LSU.
LSU faces Texas in Baton Rouge this weekend, another chance to beat a top-10-ranked team in Death Valley. If LSU wins, the Tigers are right back in the national picture.
LSU football's College Football Playoff Odds
Per FanDuel, LSU's odds to make the College Football Playoff are +170. That's an implied probability of 37%.
This article originally appeared on LSU Wire: Don't count LSU football out of the College Football Playoff race
