LSU football faces Kentucky on Saturday night in Game 3 of its SEC schedule. So far, LSU is 4-1 overall and 1-1 in conference play. LSU took a break from SEC play last week, hosting McNeese in Tiger Stadium. LSU took care of business with a 63-14 win.
LSU and Kentucky haven't met since 2021, when the Wildcats beat the Tigers 42-21 in Lexington. Kentucky is a much different program now, though. Kentucky fired head coach Mark Stoops at the end of 2025, seeking new blood to lead the program. Kentucky landed on Will Stein, a Kentucky native. This is Stein's first head coaching position -- he was most recently the offensive coordinator at Oregon.
That makes this a battle of year-one coaches. Though LSU head coach Kiffin certainly has the head coaching
experience edge over Stein, both are at new schools.
Even though LSU is nearly a double-digit point favorite, this game looks harder than it did in the preseason. Kentucky is 4-1 with a 2-1 record in conference play. Three key elements will decide the winner of this Week 6 SEC game.
LSU must win the turnover battle
LSU's offense is good. The Tigers lead the SEC in total offense and have no trouble scoring points. But LSU turns the ball over. With 1.75 turnovers per FBS game, LSU ranks No. 110 in college football. That's not a good matchup vs. this turnover-happy Kentucky defense. Under defensive coordinator Jay Bateman, Kentucky forces 2.25 turnovers per game (8th in the FBS).
Kentucky's path to an upset rests on its ability to create turnovers. Turnovers kill momentum, steal possessions, and set Kentucky's offense up with a short field. LSU's defense is elite, and Kentucky probably needs a couple of those short fields to score points. LSU can prevent that by protecting the football.
LSU QB Sam Leavitt leads the SEC with seven interceptions; several of those picks aren't his fault. Per PFF, Leavitt's turnover-worthy play rate is only 1.1%. Leavitt has been the victim of some bad luck so far, which should even out in time. LSU needs that evening out to begin on Saturday.
Can Kentucky slow down LSU's pass rush?
LSU's pass rush isn't a good matchup for Kentucky. LSU leads the nation with 4.35 FBS sacks per game. Princewill Umanmielen (8.0 sacks) and Deuce Geralds (5.0 sacks) have led the charge. No defensive end in the SEC has more sacks than Umanmielen, and no defensive tackle in the conference has more sacks than Geralds.
Kentucky's offensive line is better than the sack total suggests. The bigger problem is quarterback Kenny Minchey, who holds the ball under pressure and lets those pressures turn into sacks.
According to PFF, Minchey's pressure-to-sack rate is 30.8%—fourth-worst in the SEC. With Umanmielen and Geralds getting after the Kentucky passer on Saturday, that could be a problem for the Wildcats.
LSU offense needs to take advantage of Kentucky on third downs
LSU's offense ranks No. 12 in FBS in third-down offense. Kentucky's defense ranks 122nd. When LSU gets to third down, the Tigers have an advantage vs. a Kentucky defense that struggles to get off the field.
Kentucky allowed a third-down conversion rate above 50% in all three of its SEC games so far. Last week, UK allowed South Carolina to convert 8 of 14 third downs. Even when teams get to third and long vs. the Wildcats, they're 4/9 on third down.
Meanwhile, the LSU offense is better than most when it finds itself in third and long. At Ole Miss, LSU's average yards to go on third down was 8.1, but the Tigers still converted at a rate of 56%.
This is an area where Sam Leavitt's health will matter. The LSU QB has resisted scrambling the last two weeks as he nursed a minor hamstring injury. It worked out for Leavitt, who was forced to settle in and deliver from the pocket, an area LSU wanted to see improve, but LSU will need Leavitt's legs again at some point. If the offense is sputtering, a third-down scramble can keep the chains moving.
That's not a good matchup for Kentucky, which has surrendered more QB scramble yards than any defense in the SEC.
LSU vs Kentucky betting odds
As of Thursday morning, LSU is an 8.5-point favorite at Kentucky. The line has moved in Kentucky's favor after LSU was nearly a double-digit favorite earlier in the week. The total is 51.5.
This article originally appeared on LSU Wire: Three matchups that will decide LSU football vs Kentucky
