The marquee nonconference game on the Alabama Crimson Tide's regular season schedule comes in Week 3 of the 2026 college football season. Coach Kalen DeBoer's team hosts the Florida State Seminoles at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Alabama may not look at Saturday's matchup as a revenge game, but neither Crimson Tide players, coaches or fans have forgotten last year's 31-17 loss to Florida State in the season opener at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee.
In that game, Alabama got off to a slow start and allowed 230 rushing yards to the Seminoles. The Tide committed eight penalties and the defense couldn't get critical stops on third and fourth down.
Things have changed quite a bit for both programs since then. Alabama (2-0) is No. 10 in this week's US
LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 poll after defeating the Kentucky Wildcats, 45-17, behind a dominant second half in Lexington. Florida State (1-1) is unranked after falling to SMU, 27-24, on Sept. 7.
The Seminoles fired athletic director Michael Alford this week, and there is rampant speculation that embattled head coach Mike Norvell is next. Beyond that, Alabama has been the far better program in spite of last year's setback in Tallahassee. The Crimson Tide have continued recruiting at a high level under DeBoer and went 10-1 the rest of the way in the 2025 regular season while the Seminoles finished 5-7.
One of those recruits is former five-star prospect Keelon Russell, who earned the starting quarterback nod over Austin Mack with his performance in fall camp. Russell shook off three first-half turnovers at Kentucky and finished 16 of 23 for 188 yards and a 5-yard touchdown pass to Rico Scott. Alabama rushed for 150 yards in the second half while outscoring Kentucky, 32-0, behind touchdown runs from Daniel Hill, EJ Crowell and Trae'shawn Brown.
Florida State's loss to SMU came despite the Mustangs committing four turnovers. Fifth-year senior quarterback Ashton Daniels, who Alabama faced in last year's Iron Bowl win over Auburn, completed only 12 passes for 125 yards. The Seminoles' defense surrendered 585 yards.
Top running back among Seminoles to know vs. Florida State in Week 3
— Roll Tide Wire (@RollTideWire) September 15, 2026
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Will Alabama football beat Florida State in Week 3 showdown?
Ahead of Alabama-Florida State, ESPN's Bill Connelly predicted the final score using his popular SP+ metrics. Connelly has the Crimson Tide winning by two scores, which is slightly below the oddsmakers' 20.5-point spread.
His final score prediction: Alabama 32, Florida State 16.
Connelly gives the Crimson Tide a win probability of 84%.
Where Alabama football sits in ESPN SP+ rankings entering Week 3
Alabama is No. 10 in ESPN's SP+ team rankings, up one spot from last week.
The Crimson Tide have an overall rating of 21.2 (up from 20). Alabama is one spot below the Oregon Ducks (22.9) and one spot ahead of the Tennessee Volunteers (20.2) in ESPN's team rankings.
To break down Alabama's rating by units, SP+ gives the Crimson Tide a 33.5 rating on offense (No. 20 nationally, up two spots from last week) and an 11.9 rating on defense, which is No. 3 nationally and up two spots from before the win over Kentucky. In special teams, Alabama is given a minus-0.4 rating, which ranks 108th nationally.
Florida State is No. 44 in the SP+ team rankings with an overall rating of 7.7, one spot below Arizona State and one spot ahead of Cincinnati. The metrics give the Seminoles a 29.5 rating on offense that's No. 49 nationally, a 21.5 rating on defense that's No. 45 nationally, and a minus-0.2 rating in special teams (No. 92).
What are ESPN SP+ rankings?
According to Connelly, SP+ is "simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."
"SP+ is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system does," he adds.
Alabama football vs Florida State: start time, channel for Week 3
TV channel, commentators for Alabama football vs. Florida State
— Roll Tide Wire (@RollTideWire) September 15, 2026
📸 Melina Myers, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect https://t.co/H3j9KETPBy pic.twitter.com/pZ3CgmZUqz
Kickoff for Alabama-Florida State in Week 3 of the 2026 college football season is 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The game will be televised on ABC. Sean McDonough and Greg McElroy will have the call of the game. Katie George will report from the sidelines.
Additionally, the Crimson Tide Sports Network feed of the game featuring Alabama radio voice Chris Stewart and Tyler Watts can be heard on SiriusXM channel 84 and The Varsity App.
Alabama football schedule 2026
All start times Central.
- Sept. 5: vs. East Carolina Pirates (W, 48-10)
- Sept. 12: at Kentucky Wildcats (W, 45-17)
- Sept. 19: vs. Florida State Seminoles, 2:30 p.m., ABC
- Sept. 26: vs. South Carolina Gamecocks, 6 p.m., ESPN
- Oct. 3: at Mississippi State Bulldogs, early window
- Oct. 10: vs. Georgia Bulldogs, prime time
- Oct. 17: at Tennessee Volunteers, TBA
- Oct. 24: vs. Texas A&M Aggies, TBA
- Nov. 7: at LSU Tigers, TBA
- Nov. 14: at Vanderbilt Commodores, TBA
- Nov. 21: vs. Chattanooga Mocs, 1 p.m., SEC Network+
- Nov. 28: vs. Auburn Tigers, TBA
Record: 2-0 overall, 1-0 SEC.
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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: ESPN predicts the final score of Alabama football vs. Florida State
