It's that time of year again as the calendar flips to November when the eyes of the college football worlds turns their attention to a group of 13 committee members who will eventually choose the 12 participants of the College Football Playoff (CFP) next month.
The initial CFP rankings come out this Tuesday night, which means it is time when we will learn teams the committee is higher on than most, lower on, which conferences they think are strong and weak, and who is on the bubble.
This year seems more chaotic than usual though with many upsets, such as the fact that the No. 2 team in the AP Poll has lost three consecutive weeks for the first time in nearly 20 years (dating back to the year that everyone views as the king of chaos in 2007). As
a result, it means that this year's initial CFP rankings will likely feature multi-loss teams higher than we are used to seeing, just because frankly there are more multi-loss teams than normal.
A couple things to keep in mind are that the committee sometimes likes to have some surprise in the initial rankings in order to create intrigue and to get people talking. Whether it be a No. 1 that people do not expect, a two-loss team ahead of a one-loss, or something else. Do not be surprised if that's the case.
With all of that being said, here is my prediction for what the CFP committee's rankings will look like Tuesday night. I will show what I expect the 12-team CFP field to look like, including the group of six representative, as well as the next two teams right on the bubble.
Also, this is not my ranking of these teams, nor is this how I would put the teams in the field if I were in charge. This is purely my projection of what I think the committee will do.
Initial CFP 12-team field projection entering first rankings
- No. 1 Miami Hurricanes (9-0) - ACC champion
- No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (7-1) - SEC champion
- No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1)
- No. 4 Utah Utes (8-0) - Big 12 champion
- No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers (8-1) - Big Ten champion
- No. 6 UCLA Bruins (8-0)
- No. 7 BYU Cougars (7-1)
- No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2)
- No. 9 Kentucky Wildcats (7-1)
- No. 10 Texas Longhorns (6-2)
- No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels (6-2)
- No. 25 Boise State Broncos (7-1) - Group of Six representative
- First Two Out: No. 12 LSU Tigers (6-2) and No. 13 Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1)
A couple things that you will notice are that I have Alabama ahead of Kentucky. The reason being is that the committee usually holds head-to-head in high regard. Usually if two teams are within a couple of spots of each other, the team that won the head-to-head will be ahead.
I do not have BYU ahead of Notre Dame, which they won the head-to-head, because I do not think the committee will have them close enough for that to kick in. I personally have BYU ahead of Notre Dame, but again, this is not my personal rankings.
Another prediction I have is that Utah and UCLA are behind Notre Dame and Indiana, respectively, as this year's form of "wow, that team is lower than we thought they'd be".
I also thought about going with UTSA at the group of six spot since the committee is usually highest on the American among the group of six conferences, but went with Boise State just because we do not know yet how the committee will view the new Pac-12.
LSU would be ranked No. 12, but would be on the outside-looking-in due to the group of six representative.
The initial CFP rankings will be revealed Tuesday night, Nov. 3, live on ESPN at 7 p.m. ET.
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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Predicting the 12-team field entering first CFP rankings release
