The Alabama Crimson Tide hit the road to face the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium in a top-25 matchup in Week 5 of the 2026 college football season.
Mississippi State has been Alabama's most common opponent throughout most of the Crimson Tide's history, but Saturday's meeting will be the first between two programs that are geographically the closest in the SEC since 2023.
And if September if any indication, these Bulldogs can bite. Mississippi State hasn't looked like your older brother's Bulldogs. That was evident again in Week 4 when coach Jeff Lebby's team overcame a 24-17 deficit in the fourth quarter against a top-25 Missouri Tigers team in Starkville.
Rising sophomore quarterback Kamario Taylor threw for a career-high 360
yards and three touchdowns, including the eventual game-winner: a 24-yard dart to receiver Sanfrisco Magee in the end zone with 3:57 to play in the Bulldogs' 31-24 come-from-behind win.
For its part, coach Kalen DeBoer and Alabama have their own rising star at quarterback with former five-star recruit Keelon Russell. In his fourth career start, Russell threw for a season-high 365 yards and four touchdowns. The Crimson Tide smoked South Carolina, 49-18, at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Four of his Russell's first 11 completions went for touchdowns as Alabama built a 35-3 first-half lead. He completed all but six passes and was 21 of 27 overall. Russell added a 9-yard touchdown run on Alabama's final series with 2:21 remaining in the fourth quarter.
Alabama (4-0 overall, 2-0 SEC) is No. 7 in this week's US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 poll. Mississippi State (4-0, 2-0) is No. 16.
Will Alabama football beat Mississippi State? ESPN's prediction
Oddsmakers have Alabama as a six-point favorite over Mississippi State, but as always, ESPN Analytics has its own odds for Saturday's games.
ESPN's matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index and other variables, gives Alabama a 74.2% chance to win. Mississippi State has a 25.9% chance.
The Crimson Tide are sixth nationally in ESPN's FPI, up one spot from last week, and are third among SEC teams. Alabama has a 24.6 overall FPI rating (up from 22.3). Mississippi State has a 14.3 FPI rating that is 20th in ESPN's metrics.
Alabama football odds of reaching College Football Playoff after blowout win over South Carolina
In ESPN's FPI entering Week 5, Alabama's chances of reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff are 72.9%, a noticeable increase from 57.8% last week. It has the fifth-best odds among power conference teams (and Notre Dame) of reaching the CFP, and it has the third-best odds among SEC teams behind Texas and Georgia.
The Crimson Tide are given an 18.1% chance of winning the SEC championship (up from 12.2% last week), a 16.7% chance of reaching the national championship game (up from 12.1%) on Jan. 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas and an 8.4% shot of winning the national title (up from 5.6% a week ago).
Alabama is one spot behind the Miami Hurricanes (25.7) in the FPI and one spot ahead of the Indiana Hoosiers (24.4).
SEC football teams ranked by ESPN FPI: new team rises to No. 1 after Week 4 shakeup
Georgia's dominant 41-13 win over the Oklahoma Sooners moved the Bulldogs past the Texas Longhorns to No. 1 in ESPN's FPI ratings entering Week 5. It's the first time this season that Georgia has overtaken Texas for the top spot.
Elsewhere, Florida rose four spots after the Gators' convincing 52-28 win over Ole Miss in Gainesville.
Here is where Alabama and all 16 SEC teams rank in ESPN's FPI:
- 16. Arkansas Razorbacks (2.2 FPI)
- 15. Vanderbilt Commodores (5.5 FPI)
- 14. Kentucky Wildcats (9.4 FPI)
- 13. Missouri Tigers (9.6 FPI)
- 12. South Carolina Gamecocks (9.9 FPI)
- 11. Auburn Tigers (13.0 FPI)
- 10. Oklahoma Sooners (13.9 FPI)
- 9. Mississippi State Bulldogs (14.3 FPI)
- 8. Ole Miss Rebels (14.4 FPI)
- 7. Texas A&M Aggies (15.1 FPI)
- 6. Tennessee Volunteers (18.2 FPI)
- 5. Florida Gators (19.3 FPI)
- 4. LSU Tigers (22.1 FPI)
- 3. Alabama Crimson Tide (24.6 FPI)
- 2. Texas Longhorns (26.9 FPI)
- 1. Georgia Bulldogs (28.3 FPI)
What are ESPN FPI ratings?
ESPN explains:
"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete."
Alabama football vs. Mississippi State start time, TV information
TV announcers, broadcast info for Alabama vs. Mississippi State
— Roll Tide Wire (@RollTideWire) September 29, 2026
📸 Matt Bush, USA TODAY Sports https://t.co/TedAC9SYLb pic.twitter.com/SjCa2rFEla
Kickoff for Alabama-Mississippi State in Week 5 of the 2026 college football season is 11 a.m. CT Saturday at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville. The game can be seen on ABC. Sean McDonough and Greg McElroy will have the call of the game. Katie George will report from the sidelines.
All times Central.
- Sept. 5: vs. East Carolina Pirates (W, 48-10)
- Sept. 12: at Kentucky Wildcats (W, 45-17)
- Sept. 19: vs. Florida State Seminoles (W, 50-36)
- Sept. 26: vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (W, 49-18)
- Oct. 3: at Mississippi State Bulldogs, 11 a.m., ABC
- Oct. 10: vs. Georgia Bulldogs, 6:30 p.m., ABC
- Oct. 17: at Tennessee Volunteers, TBA
- Oct. 24: vs. Texas A&M Aggies, TBA
- Nov. 7: at LSU Tigers, TBA
- Nov. 14: at Vanderbilt Commodores, TBA
- Nov. 21: vs. Chattanooga Mocs, 1 p.m., SEC Network+
- Nov. 28: vs. Auburn Tigers, TBA
Record: 4-0 overall, 2-0 SEC.
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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: ESPN predicts the winner of Alabama football vs. Mississippi State
