It couldn't possibly happen again, could it? After a big win over an SEC rival, the Alabama Crimson Tide visit the Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville during Week 11 of the 2026 college football season.
Alabama (7-2, 5-2 SEC) is No. 7 in the US LBM Coaches Poll and the AP Top 25. Vanderbilt (4-5, 1-5) is unranked. In the updated College Football Playoff rankings
reveal Tuesday, the Crimson Tide are No. 3.Alabama is coming off a 31-13 statement win over the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge. Keelon Russell threw three touchdown passes in a span of nine minutes on the game clock, and the Crimson Tide's defense forced three turnovers on downs in the fourth quarter to pick up a massive win to boost their playoff hopes.
Of course, Alabama was coming off another
big win two years ago when it visited Nashville. The Crimson Tide had beaten Georgia in a 41-34 thriller at Bryant-Denny Stadium and were No. 1 in the AP Top 25. The Tide suffered a stunning 40-35 loss to a Vanderbilt team led by fifth-year quarterback Diego Pavia. It was Alabama's first loss to Vanderbilt in 40 years.
Pavia is gone, and the Commodores had lost five straight games until a 25-23 win at Mississippi State in Week 10. Vanderbilt rushed for 160 yards and used six field goals from Brock Taylor to earn its first win in SEC play.
Will Alabama football avoid upset at Vanderbilt? ESPN's prediction
Oddsmakers have Alabama as a 15.5-point favorite over Vanderbilt, but as always, ESPN Analytics has its own odds for Saturday's game.
ESPN's matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index and other variables, doesn't see a repeat of the Crimson Tide's 2024 loss in Nashville happening, either. It gives Alabama a 94.8% chance to win. Vanderbilt has a 5.2% chance.
The Crimson Tide are third nationally in ESPN's FPI, up three spots from last week. Alabama has a 26.1 overall FPI rating. Vanderbilt has a 0.7 FPI rating that is 69th nationally in ESPN's metrics.
ESPN predicts Alabama football odds of reaching College Football Playoff after massive win at LSU
In ESPN's FPI entering Week 11, Alabama's chances of reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff are 94.6%, a dramatic increase from 60.3% before the win over LSU. It has the third-best odds among power conference teams of reaching the CFP behind Miami and Georgia.
The Crimson Tide are given a 32.5% chance of winning the SEC championship (up significantly from 16.6%), a 29.1% chance of reaching the national championship game (up from 13.5%) on Jan. 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas and a 15.9% shot of winning the national title (up from 6.8%).
ESPN's FPI gives Alabama a 57% chance of winning out. The Crimson Tide (26.1) are one spot behind Georgia (27.2) in the FPI and one spot ahead of Miami (26.0).
SEC football teams ranked by ESPN FPI: three-loss team keeps rising
With South Carolina winning its fourth straight game, a 17-9 road win at Texas A&M, the Gamecocks rose three spots among SEC teams in ESPN's college football power index rankings. Oklahoma had the biggest jump overall, climbing four spots after the Sooners' suffocating 23-7 win over Florida in Gainesville.
Here is where Alabama and all 16 SEC teams rank in ESPN's FPI entering Week 11.
- 16. Vanderbilt Commodores (0.3 FPI)
- 15. Arkansas Razorbacks (1.6 FPI)
- 14. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7.0 FPI)
- 13. Auburn Tigers (8.7 FPI)
- 12. Kentucky Wildcats (11.3 FPI, down one spot)
- 11. Florida Gators (12.5 FPI, down three spots)
- 10. Missouri Tigers (12.9 FPI, down three spots)
- 9. Texas A&M Aggies (13.0 FPI)
- 8. Oklahoma Sooners (13.6 FPI, up four spots)
- 7. South Carolina Gamecocks (14.1 FPI, up three spots)
- 6. Ole Miss Rebels (18.3 FPI, down one spot)
- 5. Tennessee Volunteers (18.5 FPI, up one spot)
- 4. LSU Tigers (22.5 FPI, down two spots)
- 3. Texas Longhorns (23.9 FPI, up one spot)
- 3. Alabama Crimson Tide (26.1 FPI, up one spot)
- 1. Georgia Bulldogs (27.2 FPI)
What are ESPN FPI ratings?
ESPN explains:
"The Football Power Index is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete."
Alabama football vs. Vanderbilt start time, TV channel information
'College GameDay' announces Week 11 location, choosing unusual setting
— Roll Tide Wire (@RollTideWire) November 11, 2026
📸 Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal, USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect https://t.co/CEVvf1AJVr pic.twitter.com/5coNCBnxNn
Kickoff for Alabama-Vanderbilt in Week 11 of the 2026 college football season is 11:45 a.m. CT Saturday at FirstBank Stadium. The game can be seen on SEC Network. Matt Schumacker and Aaron Murray will have the call of the game. Taylor Davis will report from the sidelines.
All times Central.
- Sept. 5: vs. East Carolina Pirates (W, 48-10)
- Sept. 12: at Kentucky Wildcats (W, 45-17)
- Sept. 19: vs. Florida State Seminoles (W, 50-36)
- Sept. 26: vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (W, 49-18)
- Oct. 3: at Mississippi State Bulldogs (W, 56-23)
- Oct. 10: vs. Georgia Bulldogs (L, 20-17)
- Oct. 17: at Tennessee Volunteers (L, 26-10)
- Oct. 24: vs. Texas A&M Aggies (W, 31-20)
- Nov. 7: at LSU Tigers (W, 31-13)
- Nov. 14: at Vanderbilt Commodores, 11:45 a.m., SEC Network
- Nov. 21: vs. Chattanooga Mocs, 1 p.m., SEC Network+
- Nov. 28: vs. Auburn Tigers, TBA
Record: 7-2, 5-2 SEC.
Contact us at @RollTideWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook for ongoing coverage of Alabama Crimson Tide news, notes and opinions.
This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: ESPN predicts Alabama football's chances of losing at Vanderbilt again
