The Alabama Crimson Tide are back home in Bryant-Denny Stadium for Week 3 of the 2026 college football season. They're facing the Florida State Seminoles on the back end of the teams' home-and-home series.
Alabama (2-0), ranked No. 10 in this week's US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 poll, defeated the Kentucky Wildcats, 45-17, behind a dominant second half last Saturday in Lexington. The defense played outstanding, holding Kentucky to 57 net yards after halftime.
Keelon Russell shook off three first-half turnovers to finish 16-of-23 for 188 yards and a touchdown. Daniel Hill had his best day in the backfield, rushing for 104 yards and a touchdown. Alabama had three rushing touchdowns and ran the ball for 150 yards in the second half en route to 32
unanswered points.
Florida State (1-1) defeated New Mexico State in its season opener but failed to take advantage of four SMU turnovers in a 27-24 loss to the Mustangs on Labor Day night. The Seminoles rushed for 199 yards against SMU, but quarterback Ashton Daniels threw for only 125 yards on 12 completions.
Last year's Alabama-FSU matchup in Week 1 produced one of the most head-scratching defeats of Kalen DeBoer's tenure in Tuscaloosa with a 31-17 loss in Tallahassee. Will the Tide take some revenge on the Noles this time around?
Will Alabama football avoid upset vs Florida State? ESPN's prediction
Oddsmakers have Alabama as a 20.5-point favorite over Florida State, but as always, ESPN Analytics has its own odds for Saturday's games.
ESPN's matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index and other variables, gives Alabama an 88.9% chance to win. Florida State has an 11.1% chance.
The Crimson Tide are seventh nationally in ESPN's FPI ratings, up two spots from last week, and are third among SEC teams. Alabama has a 23.2 overall FPI rating (up from 22.5 last week). Florida State has a 7.7 FPI rating that's 37th in ESPN's metrics.
Alabama football odds of reaching College Football Playoff after road win at Kentucky
In ESPN's FPI ratings entering Week 3, Alabama's chances of reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff are now 54.3%, up from 49.4% last week. It's the seventh-best overall odds of reaching the CFP among all Power Four conference teams and Notre Dame, and it's the third highest of any SEC team behind Texas and Georgia.
The Crimson Tide are given a 12.1% chance of winning the SEC championship (up from 11.2%), an 11.2% chance of reaching the national championship game (up from 10%) on Jan. 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas and a 5.2% shot of winning the national title (up from 4.6%).
Alabama is one spot behind the Indiana Hoosiers (25.3) in the FPI ratings and one spot ahead of the Texas A&M Aggies (22.6).
SEC football teams ranked by ESPN FPI: surprise team on the rise
Mississippi State's 38-13 blowout win at Minnesota moved the Bulldogs up three spots from last among SEC teams in ESPN's football power index ratings. Quarterback Kamario Taylor and company jumped past Arkansas, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Tennessee and South Carolina also rose two spots after blowout wins over Georgia Tech and Towson, respectively, while Missouri dropped two spots despite a 17-point road win at Kansas.
Here's a look at where Alabama and all 16 SEC teams now rank in ESPN's FPI.
- 16. Arkansas Razorbacks (minus-1.7 FPI)
- 15. Kentucky Wildcats (4.2 FPI)
- 14. Vanderbilt Commodores (6.8 FPI)
- 13. Mississippi State Bulldogs (12.2 FPI)
- 12. Missouri Tigers (12.3 FPI)
- 11. Auburn Tigers (14.2 FPI)
- 10. South Carolina Gamecocks (14.7 FPI)
- 9. Ole Miss Rebels (15.5 FPI)
- 8. Florida Gators (16.2 FPI)
- 7. Oklahoma Sooners (17.8 FPI)
- 6. Tennessee Volunteers (17.9 FPI)
- 5. LSU Tigers (22.6 FPI)
- 4. Texas A&M Aggies (23.1 FPI)
- 3. Alabama Crimson Tide (23.2 FPI)
- 2. Georgia Bulldogs (26.6 FPI)
- 1. Texas Longhorns (30.1 FPI)
What are ESPN FPI ratings?
ESPN explains:
"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete."
Alabama football vs. Florida State start time, TV information
TV channel, commentators for Alabama football vs. Florida State
— Roll Tide Wire (@RollTideWire) September 15, 2026
📸 Melina Myers, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect https://t.co/H3j9KETPBy pic.twitter.com/pZ3CgmZUqz
Kickoff for Alabama-Florida State in Week 3 of the 2026 college football season is 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. The game can be seen on ABC. Sean McDonough and Greg McElroy will have the call of the game. Katie George will report from the sidelines.
Alabama football schedule 2026
All start times Central.
- Sept. 5: vs. East Carolina Pirates (W, 48-10)
- Sept. 12: at Kentucky Wildcats (W, 45-17)
- Sept. 19: vs. Florida State Seminoles, 2:30 p.m., ABC
- Sept. 26: vs. South Carolina Gamecocks, 6 p.m., ESPN
- Oct. 3: at Mississippi State Bulldogs, early window
- Oct. 10: vs. Georgia Bulldogs, prime time
- Oct. 17: at Tennessee Volunteers, TBA
- Oct. 24: vs. Texas A&M Aggies, TBA
- Nov. 7: at LSU Tigers, TBA
- Nov. 14: at Vanderbilt Commodores, TBA
- Nov. 21: vs. Chattanooga Mocs, 1 p.m., SEC Network+
- Nov. 28: vs. Auburn Tigers, TBA
Record: 2-0 overall, 1-0 SEC.
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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: ESPN predicts the winner of Alabama football vs. Florida State
