Ahead of the 2026 season, one of the primary things that was required of Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams for the next stage of his development to be realized was improvement in his accuracy. It wasn't the sole thing, but represented a significant component of his game to take that next step.
It's an objective that has been met through his first five appearances of the season.
Williams posted completion percentage figures of 62.5 and 58.1 percent in his first two seasons, respectively. Through five starts this year, he's up at 71.9 percent. Only Cincinnati's Joe Burrow and his 73.0 percent clip serves as a higher rate among qualifying signal callers.
The completion percentage, in itself, is one thing. While it's not a purely black-and-white
figure once throwaways and the receiver factor come into play, it does have a lot to say about a quarterback's ability to put the ball where it needs to be. In Williams' case, though, it's not the only thing.
There are a couple of different numbers that help to further illustrate how accurate a quarterback is. On-target rate is one. Williams was at 72.4 percent in 2024 & 69.8 in 2025. This year, he's at 78.9. His rate of "bad" throws — characterized as those that were uncatchable with a normal effort — sat at a combined 20.9 percent across those first two seasons. This year, it's all the way down at 12.9 percent. Additionally, his completion percentage over expected (CPOE) sits at +4.7 percent. In 2024, that number was at -1.1 percent, and last year it was -6.7 percent.
The gameplan does play a role in all of this, of course. While the Bears have been able to generate explosive plays, they've also been able to work effectively in short and medium range. Williams is at a career-low 7.0 air yards per attempt and 7.0 percent in his deep throw rate. But when you factor in the increase in completion percentage and the fact that his +0.22 EPA per dropback is a career best, you can see the impact. It's helped him to gain early comfort, navigate opposing pressure effectively, and convert deep attempts more frequently (his 54.5 percent completion rate on deep throws is behind only Geno Smith).
Williams' improved accuracy is also a massive factor in helping him to avoid turnovers. According to Next Gen Stats, the combination of 245 yards, a touchdown, and no interceptions over his last three starts has Williams at the longest such streak in the league and tied for the longest streak in Bears history. He's one of only three quarterbacks in NFL history to hit the 50-touchdown threshold for his career before throwing his 15th career interception. These are, of course, very specific figures, but they absolutely still matter.
There's still a lot of nuance within the concept of accuracy, and it would be entirely possible to run far deeper than we have here. But the important thing is that the ways in which Caleb Williams' improved accuracy extend well beyond what the standard box score shows. It's genuine growth with the ceiling not yet quite feeling like it's been touched.
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This article originally appeared on Bears Wire: Bears QB Caleb Williams' improved accuracy is visible on stat sheet
