There are a number of ways in which stats can be deceiving. In the case of the Chicago Bears, it's what has transpired in the run game over three weeks.
In terms of total yards, no team in the NFL has accrued more than the Bears' 553 yards on the ground. Their 5.3 yards per carry are also pacing the league through three games. As much as Ben Johnson's offense finds its foundation in the run game, neither of those numbers are necessarily surprising. What they are, however, is a bit misleading as to the team's actual fortunes on the ground.
Much of the work in that season-long yardage total was done in Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers. Therein, the Bears rushed for 291 yards on 39 attempts. D'Andre Swift went for 124 yards on 18 carries (6.9
YPC) while Kyle Monangai averaged an even 10 yards on each attempt through his 10 carries for 100 yards. Caleb Williams added another 65 on the ground. What's important to note there is the fact that their offensive outburst accounted for 53 percent of the Bears' actual rushing yards through three games.
In the two games that have followed, they've gone for 134 and 128 yards rushing, respectively. Swift managed just 2.8 yards per carry against Minnesota while Monangai was a bit better at 4.7. Their roles were somewhat flipped against the Eagles on Monday night, with Swift at 4.2 yards per carry and Monangai at 3.1. In any case, it speaks to how dominant the run game was in Week 1 that that performance is still holding the Bears at the top of the league in rushing through three games.
That's not to say that the Bears' run game has been bad in the subsequent weeks. But it has, visibly, been less effective, especially in comparison with how things came together between Swift & Monangai in the second half of last season. As such, while the standard numbers might still favor them relative to the other teams in the league, the advanced stats allow us to glean a little bit more as to what the picture actually looks like.
Among running backs, Kyle Monangai is the stronger of the Bears' two backs thus far in 2026 in matters of EPA. His +0.08 EPA per attempt ranks fourth among qualifying backs. Swift, meanwhile, is at -0.01 EPA per attempt (15th). Monangai also has the edge in yards over expected per carry, at 1.69 (3rd). Swift is at 0.06 (18th). In terms of the rate of attempts where each gained more yards than expected, Monangai is the better of the two at 43.3 percent while Swift is at 36.5. That number has Monangai at 14th and Swift in 28th.
Their rush efficiency, measured as the total distance the ball was carried against the actual number of yards gained has Monangai at 2.93. Swift is at 3.71. This doesn't feel terribly surprising, as a lower number is more indicative of a north-south runner. Between the two, the Bears' second-year man is certainly the one to feature that style.
Interestingly, there are a couple of spots on the line where the Bears are struggling to gain traction in the run game. On attempts over the left guard spot, they're at an EPA of -0.17. When trying to run toward the right tackle spot on the line, they're at -0.48. Those attempts are classified into quintiles. Q1 represents the highest group of the five. When rushing in either of the left guard gaps, they're in Q4. Toward right tackle, they're in Q5. In the other three spots, they're in Q1.
None of this is to say that the Bears won't figure it out in the run game. Nor is it indicative of specific struggles from Joe Thuney or Darnell Wright. Scheme and very difficult outings against Minnesota's blitz & Philadelphia's keying in on the run game play their role as well. Caleb Williams' absence is a factor that we can't overlook either. But the bottom line is that, regardless of cause, the rush attack is not what we became accustomed to seeing last season or to open up 2026.
We have no reason to think that it won't be sorted by Johnson and his offensive staff, but this all does speak to the idea that those cumulative stats on the season are a little bit misleading given what the eye test has shown us over the last two weeks.
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This article originally appeared on Bears Wire: How are Bears running backs faring in the eyes of advanced stats?
