The Chicago Bears are coming off an impressive 11-6 season, where they went from worst to first, won the NFC North and won their first playoff game in nearly two decades in the first season under head coach Ben Johnson. Now, optimism is higher than ever surrounding this team.
While there are plenty of new faces on the roster after the departure of key veterans, the Bears have a number of returning cornerstones and exciting rookies on the roster. That includes a budding star in quarterback Caleb Williams, who's quickly become one of the faces of the NFL and will have quite the arsenal of weapons to target on offense. Meanwhile, there are questions on defense regarding the pass rush and an injury-riddled secondary.
While the future is bright and
Chicago found success last season, is it enough to make a repeat run as NFC North champions and a return to the playoffs? Here's a roundup of expert and analyst record predictions for the Bears in 2026.
Nate Davis, USA TODAY: 12-5
Davis writes: "Regression is certainly possible given their reliance on a league-high 33 takeaways during last year’s magic carpet ride … plenty of that magic rubbing off on QB Caleb Williams’ right arm in the most high-leverage situations. The reigning division champs have also drawn the league’s most difficult schedule based on their opponents’ collective winning percentage in 2025 (.550). Yet overall progression in Year 2 under HC Ben Johnson is just as likely, assuming Williams and Co. continue to master an offense which spotlights a daunting run game and should get more from a diverse and talented group of pass catchers – perhaps enough to finally make Williams’ the 106-year-old franchise’s first 4,000-yard passer after he fell 58 yards short of the mark in 2025. Playing three of the first four games at Soldier Field should help."
Courtney Cronin, ESPN: 9-8
Cronin writes: "Biggest strength: Ben Johnson's offense. Caleb Williams is developing into the franchise quarterback the Bears dreamed of because of Johnson's system and coaching, but success on offense extends beyond the QB. Johnson's scheme sparked fundamental changes that allowed the Bears to generate the second-most explosive plays last season. From a reliance on the running game to offensive line continuity and a plethora of pass-catching options, this offense once again has the makings of being a top-10 unit."
Conor Orr, Sports Illustrated: 10-7
Orr writes: "I suppose, “the Bears will miss the playoffs” is the headline from this blurb, even though Chicago will have won double-digit games for the second consecutive season and will have posted a statement victory over the defending Super Bowl champions. I don’t think a 10-win season necessitates a What’s wrong? or What happened?style blurb. According to the FTN Almanac, the Bears have one of the worst projected defensive DVOAs in the NFL. This is a split that, if it turns out to be accurate, would have the Bears looking a bit like a less hilarious version of the 2025 Cowboys. Chicago was a lower-rung unit last season and, despite some flirtation with Maxx Crosby, did most of its heavy lifting in reshaping the team’s defensive backfield. Hence, I have a few “slip up” games for the Bears against teams with some elite playmakers, like Bijan Robinson in Atlanta and two losses to Ben Johnson’s former team, the Lions. Again, I don’t think slightly punishing the Bears, a team whose offensive excellence and the stunning health of its offensive line overshadowed holes on defense and distracted us from the fact that the team ranked fairly high in a ranking of clubs that benefitted from “luck”-adjusted plays, is controversial. An MVP-caliber campaign from Caleb Williams, plus a crusade against Ryan Poles to improve the defense next offseason, feels like a very comfortable and safe landing spot."
Tom Blair, NFL Media: 1st in NFC North
Blair writes: "A 2-4 start to the year will have Bears doomers dancing about the unsustainability of last season's success, which relied plenty on takeaways and comebacks. They might even forget just how good Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams looked together, including when they were pushing the Rams to the wire in the playoffs. To me, that duo gives Chicago a pretty solid eight-win floor. After that, your expectations will probably hinge on whether or not you think the Bears can pull off two or three more, and I do: back-to-back victories over the participants in Super Bowl LX, including a prime-time road triumph over the defending champs, and a Thanksgiving Day win over Detroit to set up the first season sweep of that series for Chicago since 2021."
John Breech, CBS Sports: 10-7
Breech writes: "And if you're wondering why I like the Lions to win the division. A lot of it comes down to their three non-common games. Every team in the NFC North plays 14 similar games and three non-common ones: DET: at Cardinals, Giants, Titans; CHI: at Seahawks, Eagles, Jaguars; GB: at Rams, Cowboys, Texans; MIN: at 49ers, Commanders, Colts. I feel like the Lions will go 3-0 with their slate, but I can't see any other NFC North team pulling that off with their trio of games."
Kevin Fishbain, The Athletic: 9-8
Fishbain writes: "Injuries in camp may have tempered fans from making Super Bowl plans, with safety Coby Bryant out four to six months and the Bears still lacking clarity on nickel corner Kyler Gordon. They are probably another playoff appearance away from being in the upper echelon of Super Bowl contenders. The Ben Johnson-Caleb Williams duo with this offensive line and skill players has raised the floor in Chicago. Winning fewer than eight games seems unlikely. The defensive questions — from health to pass rush — lower the ceiling, though."
Gary Davenport, Bleacher Report: 9-8
Gary Davenport: "The Bears experienced quite a turnaround last year—after winning just five games in 2024, the Bears went 11-6 and won the NFC North in 2025. Now, there's enthusiasm in Chicago—and expectations. Expectations that the Bears will not only make the playoffs but make a run in them. That young quarterback Caleb Williams will become a legitimate star in his third season. The offense should be formidable. But there are questions at all three levels of the Chicago defense, especially up front. In a meat-grinder of a division, that defense is going to leave Bears fans disappointed this year."
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This article originally appeared on Bears Wire: NFL experts predict Chicago Bears' 2026 record
