After their 27-7 win against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Chicago Bears are looking to get to 3-1 with a win against the New York Jets. New York comes into this game 1-2 after losing back-to-back games against NFC North teams.
For the second week in a row, the Bears will be without starting quarterback Caleb Williams. Case Keenum did well in Williams’ absence against the Eagles, but it is unclear whether Keenum or Tyson Bagent will get the start against the Jets. However, the current expectation is that Bagent will start after getting most of the first-team reps in practice. New York is also dealing with some injury issues as their starting running back, Breece Hall, will be out for this game.
Here is what it would take for the Bears to win this
game and what it would take for Chicago to lose this game to the Jets.
Why the Bears will win
The Bears will win this game and get to 3-1 because they are able to make the Jets’ offense one-dimensional by shutting down the run game and make Geno Smith uncomfortable in the pocket. Even with Hall in the lineup, New York had one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL. They now have to rely on Braelon Allen to lead their run game who has only played in seven games in the past two seasons. In his entire career, he has never rushed for more than 55 yards in a game.
With the run game contained, Chicago will be able to go after the Jets’ offensive line which has struggled in the past two games against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Smith has thrown five interceptions and been sacked six times in his three previous games against the Bears including being sacked three times and throwing two picks in his only other matchup against Chicago as the quarterback for the Jets. The Bears also had a lot of success against Smith last season when he was the quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders. Geno Smith’s poor performance against the Bears defense will allow Chicago to come away from this game with a win no matter who the quarterback is.
Why the Bears won’t win
The Bears will not win this game because they will struggle offensively in the run game and the pass game as well as have critical mistakes in the form of penalties and maybe a turnover or two. Despite their record and allowing 31 points last week, New York actually has a good defense. They have allowed the third-fewest passing yards and are a top 10 team against the run through the first three games of the year. Statistically, Chicago has the best run offense in the NFL, but that metric is heavily inflated by their Week 1 game with nearly 300 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. Since then, they have not topped 140 rushing yards in a game and only have one rushing touchdown and that was from Keenum against the Eagles. There are certainly reasons to be concerned about Chicago’s run game going into this matchup.
Chicago also has a penalty problem. It was not a problem in their win against Philadelphia as they only had five penalties in that game compared to the Eagles’ 10 penalties. But the Bears had 20 penalties in their first two games and their penalties seem to always come at the worst possible time. New York made be a 1-2 team, but if the Bears start shooting themselves in the foot with penalties, it could give the Jets an opening to win this game.
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This article originally appeared on Bears Wire: Why the Bears will or won't beat the Jets in Week 4
