The Chicago Bears are gearing up for the start of the 2026 NFL season against the Carolina Panthers, which kicks off a highly-anticipated second season under head coach Ben Johnson.
Coming off an 11-6 season in 2025, the Bears are heading into the 2026 season with most of their returning cast. But there were some notable losses, including wide receiver DJ Moore, safeties Kevin Byard and Jaquan Brisker, defensive tackle Gervon Dexter, center Drew Dalman and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. But they also added some new faces to the mix, including safety Coby Bryant (who will miss most of the 2026 season) and linebacker Devin Bush, as well as rookies including safety Dillon Thieneman, receiver Zavion Thomas, tight end Sam Roush and defensive tackle Jordan
van den Berg.
But the Bears face a tall order going against the NFC North, which might be one the best divisions in the NFL...again. While Chicago found immediate success under Ben Johnson in Year 1, can they run it back in Year 2 with the league's most difficult strength of schedule and more defensive concerns? Our Bears Wire staff shares their predictions for Chicago’s 2026 season.
Alyssa Barbieri: 11-6
After unexpected, immediate success under Ben Johnson in Year 1, the Bears now have a target on their backs as they look to replicate last season's success. Looking at this roster, there's no shortage of talent, specifically on offense. After a top-five offensive showing in 2025, the expectation is Chicago will build on that with even more weapons at their disposal and quarterback Caleb Williams poised to take another step forward. Although the defense has its own questions to answer.
Technically, the Bears have the "most difficult strength of schedule," but that was based on last year's rosters, and teams have either improved or declined during this long offseason. We saw what Johnson's squad did last season with the second-most difficult schedule. The important thing to look at with this schedule are specific stretches, and there are two difficult ones for Chicago. The Bears will have three straight prime-time games against the New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers before their bye week, which will be quite the test. But it's the final month of the season that will be the biggest challenge with games against the Buffalo Bills followed by three straight against NFC North foes, which could very well determine the division winner.
I expect the Bears to take another step forward in Year 2 under Ben Johnson, although their record might not necessarily reflect it given some of their challenging games. An 11-6 record should be enough for Chicago to make a repeat trip to the postseason with the goal of getting a step further than their divisional round loss. It'll ultimately depend on how the defense fares, specifically with injuries, which has hindered the unit already. The Bears offense has what it takes to score 30 points per game, and there are some where that'll be required to get a win. Ultimately, Chicago has what it takes to repeat its record from last season. We'll see if they get it done.
Brendan Sugrue: 11-6
Going through the Bears’ schedule and coming away with an 11-6 record feels like a massive victory. There is real concern regarding the defense and how much of a liability they could be in 2026. And there’s something to be said for now being the hunted following a successful year. Fortunately, the Bears have the right coach in Ben Johnson, as well as the right quarterback in Caleb Williams, to handle those obstacles.
I do think this team starts slowly, however. We saw that in 2025, and it became a problem early on in games even as the team was winning. A 2-2 start through four games wouldn’t shock me in the slightest, but this group will find their groove and go on a run later in the season to pull away and make the postseason—particularly after Thanksgiving.
That’s where I have the Bears at 6-5 following a close loss to the Detroit Lions. The vibes are rough, the offense can’t carry a lackluster defense week in and week out, and fans are pointing their finger at different issues. But then the Bears go on a run. They go 5-1 the rest of the way with statement wins against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, and the Green Bay Packers. Suddenly, the midseason sputtering is a distant memory, and the Bears are playing their best football going into the playoffs.
Mike Pendleton: 12-5
The Bears can not afford to take a step back after their huge swing in franchise momentum last season, no matter the adversity they’ve faced in the preseason. Losing Coby Bryant definitely hurts the backend of the defense, but there’s more optimism than usual around the defensive line coming into this season. Chicago may catch a few breaks along the way, especially the Week 5 meeting against Green Bay, but they’ll have some tough tests in the first half of the season taking on the Eagles, Seahawks, and Patriots.
In 2025, this team captured the NFL world’s attention with their seven comebacks in the fourth quarter, but the coaching staff has made it clear that they want to have a more clean operation this year. If the Bears can get off to better starts and hold strong with their leads, this team should be able to put more teams away early and not need to rely on the big comebacks that they did last season.
This will be the biggest year of Caleb Williams’ young career and the most crucial for his development, if he can address the biggest criticism of his game, his completion percentage, the Bears should get at least one more win than last season.
Vincent Parise: 10-7
The Chicago Bears are going to be a good team. They may even be a great team. An argument can be made that they will be a better team than they were in 2025, even if their record is slightly worse. There are many factors that could come into play.
The Bears must focus on starting games better than they did one year ago. They won the NFC North on the back of being an elite 4th quarter team. If they are a better team from start to finish in 2026, but take one fewer victory, that will better prepare them for the postseason.
In addition to the comeback “cardiac Bears” angle, they can’t expect to lead the league in turnovers again. They have a lackluster defense, and they lost a lot of the contributors to their turnover margin, so regressing to the mean is likely.
The NFC North is also going to continue being one of the best divisions in the NFL. The Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, and Minnesota Vikings, are all good in their own way, and they all have paths to dethroning the Bears. As a result, things might even out a tad again in 2026. Again, all that matters is being a better team, and just making the playoffs.
Ariana Pensy: 13-4
The Bears’ schedule may be the toughest in the league based on last season’s win percentages, but it actually may not be as bad as it initially appears. Having to face the NFC South is not a difficult task; every team finished with a losing record last season. The Dolphins and Jets are not expected to be competitive. Chicago also gets to face the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, which is a good sign for the Bears. Their first four games of the season are manageable and this will allow them to get into a groove earlier than they did last season.
Having to play the two teams that faced each other in the Super Bowl back-to-back will not be easy with the New England Patriots on Thursday night followed by the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night in weeks seven and eight. Those will be the two toughest weeks in the schedule. But, having these difficult games before the bye week will ultimately help them down the stretch by preparing them for other games, like the Jacksonville Jaguars to kick off December.
They will finish 5-1 in the division, sweeping both the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers. Beating the Packers twice in a season sounds daunting, but the Bears did it last season if you include the postseason. I expect Minnesota to finish last in the division even with Kyler Murray at quarterback who is an upgrade from J.J. McCarthy. Chicago, on the other hand, should finish the year as the division champions again with a 13-4 record. They will still lose one game to the Detroit Lions because the Lions seem to be Ben Johnson’s kryptonite as they were the only team in the NFC North to beat the Bears twice last year.
Randy Holt: 10-7
You’ve heard Ben Johnson himself describe the Chicago Bears as the no. 1 regression candidate. I think the concerns around the defense remain legitimate until we see otherwise, to say nothing of the team’s reliance on turnovers last season. The turnover, in itself, may be a teachable skill but relying so heavily on them as a defense doesn’t feel like a sustainable strategy to keep opposing teams off the board. And as far as sustainability goes, continuing to rely on late-game push after late-game push to get wins in the standings feels like a tough ask as well. They have to start faster to aid in how questionable their defense appears, at present. The overall quality of their division is another cause for concern. Even on the heels of a season like 2025, it’s easy to be a bit pessimistic.
With all that said, I do think the structure of the team at present is such that they can stave off some of the more dire effects of regression. Good teams find ways to win close games. The Bears were a good team last year, led by a good coach and a good quarterback. That those two are still in place in Johnson & Caleb Williams and entering the second year of their partnership should bode well for more stability in the early and middle portion of games, without having to rely so much on those late pushes. Should they arise, though, last year certainly spoke to a level of confidence they should possess in being able to navigate them again. If the natural course of progression is in store for the likes of Williams, Colston Loveland, and Luther Burden III, I think it all gets compounded with the running game to give us a really dynamic offense that isn’t merely stealing games late, but taking them over.
The schedule is tough. But I think there are favorable stretches, and getting teams like Philadelphia, New England, and Jacksonville at home helps it. A 10-7 record puts them in the mix for the division and firmly in the wild card race. And if the Year 2 effect of Ben Johnson helps them start quicker given the collective familiarity, then I think we all start to feel a whole lot better and are likely looking at an additional win or two.
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This article originally appeared on Bears Wire: Final record predictions for the Chicago Bears in 2026
