The 0-1 Miami Dolphins stay out west to face the 1-0 San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. The Niners are 13.5-point favorites, and Miami could be in for a long and tough afternoon. The Dolphins will need to feature running back De’Von Achane a lot more than 11 carries and five targets. Additionally, Malik Willis must continue to feature rookie wide receiver Caleb Douglas, who led all first-year wide-outs in receptions with five, and yards with 94 in Week 1.
Keeping those players in mind, there could be several low-hanging fruit props to play this weekend in the Miami side of things.
Odds via BETMGM.com - as of Saturday 9/19
Caleb Douglas OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-125)
Make no mistake, Week 1 was no fluke for Caleb Douglas. The rookie from Texas Tech was impressive throughout training camp, and
the league is taking further notice following his debut performance. Douglas was not only tops among rookies in catches and yardage last weekend, but he was also the best in the NFL overall with a separation score of 5.28.
He saw seven targets, and it should be expected that it is equaled or even increased in Week 2. Douglas has an extremely low over/under, all things considered, of 36.5, and this could be the last week to take advantage of such a reachable figure. The odds are -125, which are very tolerable to get back a decent payout.
If you want to get creative, his odds for 50-plus yards are an intriguing +145, and it gets more enticing moving the dial up. You could more than triple your investment with a 75-plus yard play with odds of +390. If you are feeling extra bullish on Douglas, 100-plus yards has a payout of +850.
If you want to play the anytime touchdown market with Douglas, getting into the end zone pays +280. A fun and relatively safe parlay would be to combine his 36.5 Over with a score, which has a total parlay payout of +400.
De’Von Achane OVER 55.5 rushing yards (-115)
Very simply put, 11 carries for a star running back is simply unacceptable. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is aware, and it will fall on him to create a better script for his offensive centerpiece than he had last week against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Earlier in the week, he told reporters, “we don't want to leave a game with Achane only having 14 touches. We definitely want more than that, without a doubt.”
Slowik should utilize 12 or even 13 personnel more, which should benefit the overall ground game. Miami must get Achane going early, as it is likely the second half could be come-back football with heavy throwing, but their best chance for early scoring could come behind the legs of their recently contract-extended star.
Achane should have at the very least 18 rushing attempts, which for him should make 55-plus yards a no-brainer. He has had 14 games in his professional career in which he ran the ball 15 times or more. In those games, he never finished with less than 67 rushing yards, so expect Slowik to get him many more chances.
Having said that, Achane’s rushing attempts bar is set at 14.5 with odds of -105 for the over. Combining his attempts and rushing yards output in a parlay pays +140, and that could be the way to go on Sunday. Also, his anytime touchdown odds are +105, which is nice to have a bit of plus money profit for a player like Achane. Adding a score to the previous parlay makes for a very solid payoff of +275.
Malik Willis 200+ passing yards (+145)
Last week in Las Vegas, Malik Willis threw for 220 yards and also utilized his legs for 39 rush yards along with a rushing touchdown. Willis throwing for 200-plus yards Sunday isn’t the tallest order, and there is a solid chance Miami is down multiple scores in the fourth quarter.
Should Willis get a similar game from Douglas, and hopefully fellow wide receiver rookie Chris Bell could be utilized more, Miami’s quarterback could go well over 200. Willis will need to utilize Achane in the passing game, where they connected four times for 30 yards last week. Additionally, tight end Greg Dulcich should get more than a pair of targets, which was what he saw last week.
The 200-plus yards play is the safest bet here, with a solid payout, but bumping it up a notch to 250-plus pays +450. Instead of banking on the 250, a fun play could be a parlay with the 200-plus in the air, combined with over 37.5 rushing yards. That two-leg parlay pays +310.
Chris Bell over 19.5 receiving yards (-120)
Rookie Chris Bell only had one catch last week, and it went for 25 yards. While he is creeping towards being 100 percent from his 2025 ACL injury, Bell’s volume could be a work in progress, so reception props could take another week or so to bank on. Although with the over/under being 1.5 at -150 odds, he should make two or more catches yet the yardage play is a better bang for your buck.
Set with odds at -120, hitting the over here can hold a bit better of a payout. Getting a bit more ability to make a better profit, Bell getting 25-plus has solid odds at +105 and at 50-plus spikes to +390.
Greg Dulcich OVER 2.5 receptions (+135)
Tight end Greg Dulcich was targeted twice last week in Las Vegas and made good both times. Just one more catch would hit this week’s prop line, and with plus-money payout odds of 135, this is a wise, low-risk play.
In a game where Willis could be throwing the ball often, later in the game, a trio of catches should be attainable for Dulcich. His yardage mark is at 21.5 at -115 odds, so combining these to a two-leg parlay could net a solid +160 payout.
This article originally appeared on Dolphins Wire: Best prop bets for the Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers Week 2
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