The Gator Nation anxiously awaits the start of the Jon Sumrall era in Gainesville as Florida football prepares for its home opener this weekend against the visiting FAU Owls.
Ahead of the opening salvo of the fall schedule, ESPN's Bill Connelly released predictions for the Week 1 slate using his SP+ metric, with Florida holding an overwhelming edge over their in-state opponent on Saturday in the Swamp.
Connelly's data gives the Gators a 93% chance of winning on Saturday night, with the spread set at minus-27.5 and an over/under of 59.5. SP+ projects a final score of 39-15 with a projected margin of victory set at 23.8. That gives a spread differential of 3.7 and an over/under differential of minus-5.4.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 772 Maine -89 Maine Maritime
Montana State -4 Purdue Ferris State -4.5 Kent State Grand View -2 ULM This week's biggest mover: Concordia (Neb.), up 140 spots to 299th after a 77-7 win over No. 751 Waldorf!https://t.co/1emIk6plUR pic.twitter.com/vnyHwpwOW7
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) August 31, 2026
According to the SP+ numbers after Week 0's results, Florida checks in at No. 20 overall in the rankings with a 67.3 rating — adjusted so that the average rating for all 772 college football teams is 0 — which puts UF between the No. 19 Missouri Tigers (67.5) and No. 21 BYU Cougars (67.0). The Gators hold a 56.4 SP+ rating on offense, which ranks 40th in the nation, while the defense lands at minus-10.3, good enough for 12th in the country.
Florida and FAU are set to face off inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET and the game will be broadcast on the SEC Network.
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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: Here's what SP+ predicts for Florida's season opener vs FAU
