Following a 4-0 start to the 2026 campaign, the Florida Gators suddenly find themselves in an unexpected position. After years of futility under the previous coaching regime, Jon Sumrall has UF in the thick of the College Football Playoff discussion one-third of the way through the schedule.
After the dust settled on the Week 4 slate, ESPN's Pamela Maldonado took a look at Florida's national championship chances after scoring a statement win over the Ole Miss Rebels in the Swamp. She breaks down what she saw and what she foresees for the Orange and Blue.
"The biggest move this week is the Gators from 40-1 to 20-1. Florida's 52-28 win looked dominant, but it was not the same kind of early championship declaration Indiana made last season by demolishing
Illinois 63-10," Maldonado begins.
"Florida ran for 302 yards, controlled possession and scored six rushing touchdowns, repeatable traits supported by an elite run game. My hesitation: The Gators didn't make Ole Miss nonfunctional. The Rebels still gained 426 yards, averaged 8.8 yards per pass and scored four touchdowns. Florida also benefited from a 2-0 turnover edge," she continues.
"I'll admit, the Gators are interesting. One result isn't declarative enough for me to buy the championship ticket yet. Georgia versus Florida next month excites me."
All of her points are perfectly fair and it is indeed a bit too early to bet on the Gators bringing home the trophy. But things are trending in the right direction for Sumrall and Co. heading into the toughest month of their 2026 schedule.
Florida football's futures prediction
"While everyone looks to the Gators as a title contender, I'll pivot. Florida is 4-0. The over still requires a 6-2 finish. The remaining schedule looks more difficult by name than it does matchup by matchup," Maldonado states.
"Florida needs only one additional loss beyond Texas and Georgia. However, there is no obvious third loss, so we're left relying on the cumulative possibility of Missouri, Kentucky, Oklahoma or Florida State producing one. Florida could also beat Texas or Georgia and completely change the equation."
The chances that the Gators prevail over the Longhorns and Bulldogs — both games played away from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium and set inside enemy territory — are certainly slim, but the odds are not insurmountable. A much weaker Florida squad beat Texas in Gainesville last year, and while UF has lost five straight and eight of the last nine to UGA, that streak has to end eventually.
"Still, asking a team we only recently began taking seriously to play nearly flawless football for two months is not concrete," she continues. "The Ole Miss win showed that Florida has contender-level traits. I need week-to-week consistency, especially after the defense also allowed 39 points at Auburn before dominating an Ole Miss offense with protection and defensive problems of its own."
Once again, all fair points on Maldonaldo's part. And it appears she is not quite bullish on Florida's chances given the overall difficulty the remaining SEC schedule (plus a rivalry game against FSU in Tallahassee) presents.
"Betting Florida finishes 9-3 or worse is much easier to defend than betting Florida to control this schedule and then win multiple postseason games for the national title."
PREDICTION: Florida UNDER 9.5 wins (-120)
All odds are according to DraftKings
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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: ESPN offers its national championship, futures prediction for Florida
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