Florida football suffered its first loss of the Jon Sumrall era on Saturday with a rough 45-17 loss to Missouri at Faurot Field. To say things did not go well for the Gators is an understatement — their once-vaunted run game was completely shut down while their defense was exposed after showing cracks through the first four games.
Following the conclusion of Week 5's gridiron grind, ESPN's Heather Dinich published her updated projections for this year's College Football Playoff, with Florida dropping from a No. 8 seed to No. 9 in her bracket. That puts Sumrall and Co. between No. 8-seeded BYU and No. 10-seeded Ole Miss in the CFP picture.
Regarding why Florida deserves its position in the projections, Dinich offers the following explanation:
"The
Gators were outplayed in every phase against Missouri, and the selection committee members would have a hard time with this, but in the end, several factors would keep Florida in the top 10. The committee would refer to the head-to-head results of Florida beating Ole Miss and the Rebels beating LSU," she begins.
"But what about Mizzou beating Florida head-to-head?! In a shellacking?! Fair, but the committee would point to Mizzou's loss to Mississippi State, which got hammered by Alabama, and an otherwise weak schedule that includes just one other Power 4 win (2-2 Kansas). The head-to-head tiebreaker wasn't used between Miami and Notre Dame last year for a stretch of the season because the committee didn't think those teams were close enough to be comparable and use it. The same concept could be applied here," Dinich continues.
"Mizzou probably wouldn't be in the same voting pool as the Gators, which means they wouldn't be compared side by side. The other thing to consider is the bubble teams who are knocking on the door. If any team moved up above Florida, it would probably have to move ahead of Ole Miss and LSU, too, because of the head-to-heads, and none of them have a strong case. Utah was on a bye."
As for why the Gators could be lower: "Florida got trounced, and there's no way to sugarcoat it."
Dinch goes on to offer other points in the discussion of Florida's place in the playoff:
"This is a snapshot of where Florida would be ranked today, not on Selection Day. That would look different because the loss to Mizzou was devastating to Florida's playoff hopes. The Gators still have to play Texas and Georgia this month — both away from Gainesville. They can't afford to go 0-2 against them because three-loss Florida is unlikely to reach the CFP. So while the immediate impact of Saturday's loss was minimal, the long-term effect could be costly."
Dinich still believes that Florida's toughest remaining matchup comes on Oct. 17 at Texas; ESPN's FPI gives the Longhorns a 78.3% chance to win.
College Football Playoff projections after Week 5
- Texas Longhorns (4-0)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (4-1)
- Georgia Bulldogs (5-0)
- Miami Hurricanes (5-0)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-0)
- Indiana Hoosiers (5-0)
- BYU Cougars (4-0)
- Florida Gators (4-1)
- Ole Miss Rebels (3-1)
- LSU Tigers (4-1)
- Oregon Ducks (3-1)
College Football Playoff bracket
First-round byes
- No. 1 Texas (SEC champ)
- No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
- No. 3 Georgia
- No. 4 Miami (ACC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 18 and 19
- No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Alabama
- No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Notre Dame
- No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Indiana
- No. 9 Florida at No. 8 BYU (Big 12 champ)
Quarterfinal games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.
- No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Miami
- No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
- No. 10 Ole Miss/No. 7 Indiana winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
- No. 9 Florida/No. 8 BYU winner vs. No. 1 Texas
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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: Florida drops in ESPN's projected College Football Playoff seeding
