Florida football suffered its first loss of the Jon Sumrall era on Saturday with a devastating 45-17 loss to the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field. With the loss, the Gators fell out of the top 10 of ESPN's Football Power Index rankings, while many of the other metrics took a tumble as well.
The FPI measures team strength and is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance for the rest of the season; it shows how many points above or below average a team is. Each team is assigned a rating that measures its true strength on a net points scale as well as expected point margin versus an average opponent on a neutral field.
Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the season using FPI and the schedule. Take a look at how Florida's
numbers shake out after Week 5's results.
Where Florida football ranks in ESPN's FPI after Week 5
Florida moved down five spots to No. 15 in ESPN's FPI rankings after the Week 5 loss, and its rating dropped by 4.1 points to 15.2. Sumrall and Co. now sit between No. 14 Texas A&M (16.3) and No. 16 BYU (14.9) in the standings.
The FPI now projects the Gators to finish this fall's regular-season schedule with a 7.6-4.4 record and with an improved 0.3% chance of winning out — up from the 0.9% chance they had before. Florida's chances of finishing with six wins are down from a now near-certain 99.2% to a still-robust 95.1, while the odds of winning the conference plummeted by 5.6% to 0.8%.
The Gators' chance of making the College Football Playoff fell from 48.9% to 14.6, along with a 0.8% chance of reaching the national championship game and a 0.8% chance of bringing home the national title — declines of 5.0% and 1.9%, respectively.
Football Power Index top 25 rankings after Week 5
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Texas Longhorns
- Miami Hurricanes
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- Indiana Hoosiers
- LSU Tigers
- Oregon Ducks
- Tennessee Volunteers
- Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Utah Utes
- Nebraska Cornhuskers
- Texas A&M Aggies
- Florida Gators
- BYU Cougars
- Northwestern Wildcats
- Missouri Tigers
- USC Trojans
- Penn State Nittany Lions
- Oklahoma Sooners
- Ole Miss Rebels
- Pittsburgh Panthers
- Auburn Tigers
- Houston Cougars
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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: Florida tumbles in Football Power Index after brutal Missouri loss
