Much of the national media wouldn't consider Florida a national title contender, but a model using ESPN's SP+ projections and running one million simulations produced a scenario where the Gators don't just make the College Football Playoff but upset the defending champion Indiana Hoosiers.
ESPN's Bill Connelly highlighted several simulated seasons, giving them designations ranging from plausible to chaotic. Florida has a 12.8% chance of reaching the CFP, according to SP+. That's the 10th-highest in the SEC, ahead of Auburn (10.8%), South Carolina (9.4%) and Vanderbilt (8%). UF has a 3.8% chance of winning the SEC.
Georgia leads the SEC with a 50.5% CFP probability and a 21% chance of winning the conference. The Gators did not crack ESPN's top
20 in national championship probability, but ESPN's simulation No. 1 produced a dream scenario for Jon Sumrall's program.
In the simulation, Florida ends the regular season with a 9-3 record, earning a CFP berth in the process. The Gators enter the playoff as a No. 10 seed and travel to No. 7 Indiana, where they narrowly escape Memorial Stadium with a one-point victory. The upset puts Florida in the Fiesta Bowl, where No. 2 Notre Dame ends the Gators' postseason run in blowout fashion.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, simulation No. 18,541 has Florida finishing 4-8, winning just two SEC games. This scenario highlights how volatile the Gators' season can be.
The simulation ends with Oregon beating Ohio State by one point in the national championship game.
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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: Florida makes CFB playoff, upset champs ESPN simulation says
