NFL fans have followed every transaction of the offseason to draw a conclusion on what to expect in 2026. Now, the time has arrived to put those predictions the test.
Week 1 is here, and bettors have planted their flags. You can see below how the public is betting each side of every game on Sunday. But while some people will get a return on their belief, a lot of people will be wrong... and some bettors love nothing more than to find those winners on the other side of bets the public is hammering.
That's what I'm searching for here, with my favorite public bets to fade in Week 1.
Public betting splits
Public bets to fade
Bears -3 (at Panthers)
Admittedly, I also picked the Bears -3 at the start of the week. But knowing 80 percent of the public is also picking against a home side fresh off
a playoff appearance doesn't make me feel great about it. So, yes, fade all of us.
Bucs-Bengals Under 51.5
This is the highest total of the week -- in Week 1 no less -- so it makes sense people are hammering the under. Especially with the Bengals defense expected to be improved this year. But improved doesn’t mean good, and Tampa’s defense won’t have answers for Cincy either. This is one of the few opening-week games I do expect to see a ton of points scored.
Bills moneyline (at Texans)
The Texans find themselves as a slight home dog, even with one of the NFL’s best defenses, and Josh Allen is the sole reason why. He's also the reason the public is riding with the road favorite Bills on both the spread (-1.5) and moneyline regardless of the value on Houston. I'll go the other way. These splits should be much closer to 50/50.
Cardinals +9.5 (at Chargers)
Look, I get it. This spread is massive. And the Chargers have a new defensive coordinator. There’s reason to expect regression. But that doesn’t explain how the Cards are supposed to stop the Chargers on the other side.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL Week 1 public betting and trends to fade, including some bizarre Cardinals love
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