NFL straight-up picks Week 3: Are the Titans bad enough to lose to Jameis Winston?
Week 2 was largely a chalky one in the NFL -- unless you were banking on the Los Angeles Chargers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to bounce back from early losses. Instead, those two teams led by veteran quarterbacks went out and lost to two squads who had eight wins between them in 2025, throwing sand on their Super Bowl hopes only eight days into their respective seasons.
But Week 2 was also the backdrop for rising young quarterbacks to get hurt, making Week 3 all the more unpredictable. Jayden Daniels gave way to Marcus Mariota. Caleb Williams begat Tyson Bagent, who may turn the reins over to Case Keenum. And, based on what we saw last Monday night, the most concerning
case may be Jameis Winston filling in for Jaxson Dart.
Winston looked like a man focused on a media career rather than restoring his NFL value in relief of Dart, who suffered a knee injury that could keep him out for the rest of the season. He over- and under-threw balls with little rhyme or reason. He threw on the run when no one was around him, missing targets. He broke out his Florida State relief pitcher arm to launch absolute bombs to no one in particular.
If he's that bad again, does he have any chance of winning in Week 3? Well, since the opponent is the Tennessee Titans, we're betting yes.
Welcome back to For The Win's straight-up, moneyline NFL picks column. I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. The two seasons that followed? Ehhhhh, we don't like to talk about that. But I'm back and hopeful I'll either be good enough to rejoin the top 25 or, barring that, be so destructively bad you're left with no choice but to fade my picks all the way to prosperity.
Joining me for 2026 is a seven-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke, Wajih AlBaroudi and Jeff Smith, who didn't respond to passive aggressive reminders to make his selections. Ah, wait, well look who graced us with his presence. Hmmmmm...) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski and Andrew Joseph). Here are our Week 3 picks.
and:
and, finally:
Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) pair of .jpgs:
and:
Let's break out three games to talk about.
Survivor pick of the week: Green Bay Packers (-5.5) over the Atlanta Falcons
Well, my "pick against the Browns" strategy backfired last week, and for that I apologize. Baker Mayfield's failed revenge has to have Tampa Bay concerned about the $165 million extension it just gave him, as he's pretty much locked in as the team's quarterback through 2028. Nevertheless! Our new strategy will be picking against the Miami Dolphins, but I don't want to burn the Kansas City Chiefs just yet.
This has been a bad start for the Packers, but the Falcons have looked miserable on both sides of the ball. Michael Penix Jr.'s return to the lineup will help, but he'll be knocking off some rust and, even when at his NFL peak thus far, has often underwhelmed. Green Bay gets its home opener in prime time while the weather is still accommodating in Wisconsin and Lucas Van Ness, angling for a big money contract extension, is coming off the best game of his pro career.
Jordan Love needs a big game after an uneven start. Atlanta has sneakily been able to generate pressure without blitzing (a 41 percent pressure rate and a 19.5 percent blitz rate) but is still giving up passing yards at a bottom 10 mark. This looks like a low scoring affair and a sweat where the Falcons can cover, but expect the Packers to take care of business (in an unconvincing way) at Lambeau Field.
- Last week: 0-1 (thanks, Baker!)
- Season to date: 1-1
Hardest favorite to back: New York Giants (-2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
The Titans nearly won in Week 2. The Giants lost in every measure of the word, crashing out against the Los Angeles Rams while rising young quarterback Jaxson Dart left after one drive with a knee injury thatthreatens to end his 2026. Are these teams two escalators moving in different directions? Or will Tennessee remain stairs?
Why I like this pick:
The effort to uplift Cam Ward with talented young receivers has yet to take root. Wan'Dale Robinson and Carnell Tate have 13 catches and 112 yards between them. The Titans' passing offense ranks 28th in dropback expected points added (EPA), which means they're very unlikely to roast an iffy secondary the way Matthew Stafford just did. New York has too much pass rushing talent to be as ineffective as it has been. Ward's 39.7 percent pressure rate isjuuuuuust outside the bottom 10 among starting QBs.
Why I don't like this pick:
I saw Jameis Winston play football last week.
hell yeah we're getting the full Jameis experience tonight. two plays earlier he missed an open receiver because he attempted a jump pass for no reason
— Christian D'Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) 2026-09-22T01:20:18.771Z
- Last week: 1-0
- Season to date: 2-0
Upset pick of the week: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) over the Minnesota Vikings
The Raiders came through for us last week, using a revived Kirk Cousins to extend Jim Harbaugh's misery with the Chargers. Los Angeles is 0-2, and that probably won't get better anytime soon. I'm betting things will start to turn for a different winless team -- even if backing Baker Mayfield burned me last week.
Why I like this pick:
The Vikings defense plays like a hornet's nest that's been thrown through the sun roof of a limousine. But the offense managed just nine points last week against Chicago's mostly theoretical defense. Kyler Murray's return may help, or he may keep up the struggles that eventually cast him out of Arizona.
Tampa Bay needs this win, especially as the Saints and Panthers look like potential contenders behind young(ish) quarterbacks. Mayfield finds a way to show up when counted out. The numbers suggest the Bucs will lose. But they're a wounded, cornered animal, even at this early stage in the season. Expect an extra gear, especially with head coach Todd Bowles' employment prospects dimming.
Why I don't like this pick:
The Buccaneers just lost, at home, on a day where Deshaun Watson (formerly accused of more than 20 counts of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as "predatory behavior") had an average pass distance of only 3.7 yards downfield. Mayfield secured his bag and has lost the late-game magic that carried him through the early stages of 2025. He's already been sacked seven times after facing a rebuilt Cincinnati Bengals pass rush (complimentary) and a rebuild Browns one (derogatory).
I'm picking with my gut, which worked out very well in the past but not nearly as much recently. Minnesota is the better team, but Tampa Bay is the one that needs this win more.
- Last week: 1-0
- Season to date: 1-1
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL straight-up picks Week 3: Are Titans bad enough to lose to Jameis Winston?
Advertiser disclosure: USA TODAY may earn a commission when you sign up through links on this page. Commissions never influence our editorial coverage or rankings. Offers and odds were accurate at publication and are subject to change; terms apply — see the operator’s site. This is general information, not betting, legal or financial advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, USA TODAY is not liable for losses arising from your use of it.
Must be 21+ (18+ where permitted). Sports betting and casino gaming are not legal everywhere; complying with the laws where you are located is your responsibility. Gamble only with funds you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Help is available 24/7 — call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET. State helplines and responsible gaming resources.
