If C.J. Stroud can regain the potential that made him 2023's offensive rookie of the year, the AFC is in trouble.
The Houston Texans have been a consistent playoff presence even as he's languished the last two seasons. Head coach DeMeco Ryans has produced a top-two defense each of those years, pairing a wrecking-ball pass rush with a rising young secondary filled with star power.
Unfortunately, that hasn't resulted in explosive postseason success. Three straight playoff appearances have ended in the Divisional Round. While Ryans can dominate overmatched foes in Wild Card games -- the Texans' average margin of victory there is a tidy 25 points -- there's been a defined ceiling on how far his team can go. Could 2026 be the year Houston smashes through
it?
Key addition: A revamped offensive line
The defense is not the problem in Houston. An offense that slid from 15th in expected points added (EPA) per play in CJ Stroud's rookie year to 21st, then 22nd last fall, is. Stroud has yet to be flanked by a run game capable of cracking even the top 20 when it comes to efficiency.
Now, in place of Nick Chubb and Dameon Pierce, comes David Montgomery and second-year back Woody Marks. Montgomery is 29 years old and has more than 1,500 NFL carries under his belt. He still averaged 0.8 rush yards over expected (RYOE) per carry in 2025 behind an uneven Detroit Lions line -- 11th-best among qualified running backs last season.
They'll run behind a line with three prospective new starters. Braden Smith is a useful veteran likely to miss a handful of games at right tackle. Wyatt Teller is getting old, but guards tend to age well. Keylan Rutledge is young, and Houston will have to hope he works out better than the last first round interior lineman it selected (Kenyon Green, woof).
Key departure: OT Tytus Howard
Houston didn't lose much after a third-straight playoff appearance. It's made a heavy wager on yet another offensive line revamp, however. Former high value draft picks Howard and Juice Scruggs are out — the former was inconsistent and the latter generally failed to make a positive impact.
In their place are established veterans like Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller, two players on the wrong side of 30 who each missed at least four games in both 2024 and 2025. It's a change that had to be made, but one that could collapse inward at a key moment.
Potential 2026 breakout player: G Keylan Rutledge
Houston has been searching for offensive line answers… well, it seems like since the franchise's inception. That landed on Rutledge on Day 1 of this year's draft.
He's slated to man the left guard slot ahead of David Montgomery, a veteran back much more effective inside the tackles (1.1 RYOE/carry) than out (0.5 RYOE/carry). If the Georgia Tech standout can continue his bruising ways, he'll help revive 2025's third-worst rushing offense and create space for C.J. Stroud to thrive as a passer.
Position ranks
- QB rank (expected points added per dropback, via RBSDM.com): 12
- WR corps rank: 21
- RB corps rank: 28
- TE corps rank: 22
Will they improve in 2026?
It all depends on C.J. Stroud. At this point, that feels like a coin flip.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: Texans 2026 season preview: Can C.J. Stroud push Houston to greatness?
