Fantasy championships aren't made by following draft guides to a T. They're the result of bucking trends, finding the guys who'll outplay their projections and dunking on your friends who didn't get a chance to pick up, say, Justin Jefferson in 2020.
We're talking about Jefferson again in 2026. Unfortunately, he's on the other side of the coin.
I teamed up with our resident fantasy expert Mike "Yaj" Boyajian to break down all the highly rated players whose hype we aren't buying this summer. This isn't a "do not draft" list, but rather a "ehhhh, maybe a round or two later" list, highlighting the stars who've been overvalued and seem destined to frustrate. And while we've got all our reasons listed below, we also employed my "C-" video editing skills
to give you our picks in a more visual format.
Remarkably, we got through this whole list without picking Christian McCaffrey. That's probably because he would have made the list last season, then promptly wrecked shop and delivered league titles to a bunch of managers savvy enough to draft him (and also Kyle. It's always a Kyle). So who are we avoiding this summer?
Christian: RB Cam Skattebo, New York Giants (ADP: 40)
Amidst all the John Harbaugh hype remains the concerns that surround his assistants. New York will have a solid defense. It will also have an offense run by Matt Nagy, with Brian Callahan and Greg Roman serving roles as well. This is not a group of young innovators. It’s old guard playbook authors who might spam a bunch of runs up the middle but will likely fail to make Skattebo more than the sum of his parts with play design.
That’s a concern, because we know Skattebo isn’t an elite athlete. He isn’t a burner, but a grit-and-grind runner who had only 0.2 rush yards over expected (RYOE) on handoffs between the tackles(Harbaugh’s former RB1, Derrick Henry, averaged 0.6 RYOE on similar carries). His catch rate over expected (CROE) was -9.8 percent, one of the lowest among starting running backs. Skattebo could be enough of a volume play to make his selection worthwhile, but between his average traits, competition from Tyrone Tracy and a new coaching staff, I’m not touching him until the fifth round or later.
Yaj: WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (10)
Just a season ago, the fantasy football world was fawning over Justin Jefferson and his “quarterback proof” tendencies. However, “9” had collective Minnesotans screaming NEIN with every dropback last season, reducing the perennial top three wide receiver to a WR30 finish in 2025. NEIN (that's J.J. McCarthy's dumb moniker for himself. I’m embracing this clever little nickname instead) is no longer in the running to run the offense in 2026, with Kyler Murray answering the call of duty.
For some, this is a welcome sign. For me, it’s a sign all right. Run for the hills.
To be clear, Jefferson’s talent is undeniable. However, it seems Murray has predictably had trouble getting on the same page with his alpha WR (where have we seen this before…?). Instead, he's reportedly building a rapport with Jordan Addison. Ultimately, I have no faith in the former Cardinal being able to develop a strong connection with Jefferson, and can see his draft price simply being too high when you can get similar receivers with better QB situations (CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, Drake London) around the same price.
Christian: RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers (33)
Jacobs has already slid down draft boards as the Packers await news of a possible six-game suspension stemming from a domestic violence arrest this offseason (the video above was filmed before he was formally charged, and it's entirely possible he doesn't see the field this season). But he’s also coming off a down season, regressing across the board after a brilliant debut in Green Bay. That hasn’t been a problem in the past; he bounced back from below average campaigns in 2022 and 2024. That sets the stage for an even-year revival like a run game version of the 2010s San Francisco Giants, right?
I’m not so sure. Jacobs is only 28 years old, but he already has nearly 2,200 NFL touches to his name (mitigating factor: he wasn’t a bellcow back at Alabama, so it’s not quite as much mileage as it seems). His yards after catch over expected (YACOE) were cut nearly in half compared to 2024 (from 127 to 69) despite the same number of receptions (36). There’s just too much uncertainty around Jacobs to take him in the third round unless there’s already been a massive run on tailbacks in your draft.
Yaj: RB TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots (51)
This one really hurt to type, because there may not be anyone in a Patriots uniform as exciting to watch as Henderson. Last season, I was all in on the hype surrounding him and gladly reached for him a round too early in hope I snagged the next Jahmyr Gibbs. Welp, I didn’t. There were certainly flashes of brilliance, but ultimately he wasn’t given the opportunity to run away with the job.
This year the vibe seems to be more of the same. He certainly has the talent, but word around camp is Rhamondre Stevenson remains the 1A in the backfield. The talks surrounding Henderson are similar to 2025; he's having trouble hitting holes and his pass protection needs improvement.
After the finish to 2025, I am somewhat pessimistic that Henderson will completely overtake Stevenson in the backfield. If that’s the case, there is no way he should be going AHEAD of Stevenson in drafts for 2026. I love the player, but don’t love the situation.
Christian: RB Kenneth Walker III, Kansas City Chiefs (15)
Geez, I didn’t mean to hammer all running backs today – sorry to take all the iffy handoff merchants, Yaj. At least I left you Christian McCaffrey! Walker, however, seems like a massive risk bumped up to near first round status thanks to a Super Bowl MVP and the glamour of joining Patrick Mahomes’ tarnished offense.
2025 was Walker’s most productive season. Pro Football Reference rates him as the 21st-best fantasy running back in the league last year – and 55th overall. He’s had a negative RYOE in half his seasons in the league. His career high for catches in a season is 46 across 11 games in 2024 – pretty good. He turned that into 299 yards, which is less good. Now he heads to a Chiefs offense that threw to its lead, non-third-down backs only 51 times last season.
There’s a chance Eric Bieniemy turns him into a supercharged version of prime Kareem Hunt. That’s a gamble worth making! But not at the top of the second round unless you’re working in non-PPR leagues. And even then… (Tony Romo voice) Uhhhhh, I don’t know Ji- (police lights flash in background, CBS begins thinking up ways to fire me for cause).
Yaj: TE Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns (67)
Here is another example of a player I really like, seemingly stuck in a situation where he may not get to improve on his 2025 season. Fannin’s talent is undeniable, and he actually gets a boost from Todd Monken’s offensive system. My problem is simply there are way more mouths to feed in the 2026 offense, which may stall his meteoric 2025 rise.
Last season, the offense pretty much ran through Fannin and the run game. The Browns drafted two extremely talented wide receivers in K.C. Concepcion and Denzel Boston. They'll also get a healthy Quinshon Judkins back. Jerry Jeudy is still there, and Isaiah Bond looks improved as well. With Deshaun Watson seemingly getting closer each day to seizing the QB job, Fannin also won’t have the benefit of Shedeur Sanders locking on to him for long stretches as well.
Last year, Fannin finished as TE7. If the production is similar (low TE1) with the improved weapons around him, I’d rather take some upside swings in the sixth round, targeting a WR or RB instead.
Bonus: QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (57)
I simply cannot imagine a bigger “I HAVE PEAKED” warning sign than threatening legal action against your college team for letting someone else wear your jersey number, less than three years removed from actually playing there.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: 6 fantasy football stars we aren't drafting until they're absolute bargains
