Welcome to Week 5. If you ever wanted to know why I don't simply pick all running backs to score each week, look no further than last Sunday. I picked running backs in five out of the 14 games, and watched three of those backs miss out because their backups got the carry for the score.
No matter how certain a running back may seem, the threat of a backup (or quarterback) stealing a carry on the goal-line makes those short odds just as much of a gamble as the longer odds of other positions. Which is why I always try to mix it up, and why I still came away with a few wins last week.
These are my anytime touchdown scorer picks for Week 5 as we try to keep it rolling.
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
Bhayshul Tuten (-105)
The Eagles offensive line is a mess, their best playmakers are
banged up, and the unit wasn't that good to begin with. This should leave Jacksonville in positive scripts all game long and give Tuten plenty opportunities to reach the end zone.
Cincinatti Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Chase Brown (-160)
I don't love the odds, but I'm not picking a Dolphin and I don't know how healthy Cincinnati's receivers are. The Bengals could lean on Brown a lot in this one, which would've been smart even if Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase weren't banged up.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Hunter Henry (+180)
Tight ends have posted a big numbers on the Raiders this year, and Henry is coming off his best game of the season where he caught five passes for 62 yards on the Bills. Up next, his first touchdown of the year.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Aaron Jones (-120)
No team has allowed more touchdowns to running backs this year than the Saints at nine, which is two more than the next-closest team.
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
Garrett Wilson (+135)
Wilson was targeted a season-low four times in the Jets' loss to Chicago last week, which was obviously a mistake. They'll likely make an effort to get him more involved, and the Browns are vulnerable against great wideouts.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Jonathan Taylor (-170)
I don't love taking anyone at these odds, but when Jaylen Warren is sitting at -145 as the next-best option, you might as well just take the more certain bet, which is Taylor. He can beat the Steelers on the ground or through the air.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Nico Collins (+150)
Collins had eight catches for 118 yards and two scores in his return to Houston's lineup, making it very apparent how much they missed him and how much they'll likely need to lean on him going forward.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Isaiah Likely (+240)
Tight ends don't do a ton of damage on Washington, but more than 25 percent of the catches they do make are for touchdowns. Jameis Winston targeted Likely 12 times last week.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Rome Odunze (+230)
Speaking of targets, Odunze led Bears receivers with seven last week in Tyson Bagent's first start. If we can expect that to continue, he'll have a great shot to find the end zone in Green Bay.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
J.K. Dobbins (+145)
You might expect me to take a receiver with Sean Payton taking over the play-calling for Denver, but any improvements in the passing game should create space for Dobbins to have a bigger impact.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Trey McBride (+115)
The Lions didn't give a touchdown to a tight end for once last week, instead allowing a different big-bodied target, Tetairoa McMillan, to beat them for two scores. They'll get back to their old ways lining up against arguably the league's best pass-catching tight end.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-110)
You could pick JSN almost any week (maybe I have?) and it'd be solid, no matter the matchup.
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday Night Football)
Brian Robinson Jr. (+240)
When you're getting odds this long on a player who just scored three times in a game, you almost have to take them to see how hot Robinson can stay. Especially when the Ravens are starting a backup quarterback, and Bijan Robinson's odds are a long -230.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL Week 5 anytime touchdown scorer predictions
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