Baker Mayfield's mid-career revival brought the Tampa Bay Buccaneers into playoff contention. It hasn't made them a Super Bowl contender.
The Buccaneers are betting there's a "yet" to be added to that sentence. After an offseason standoff, the franchise extended the former first overall pick (and walking reflection of the Cleveland Browns' structural failures) to a reported three-year, $165 million extension with $110 million in new guarantees. That's a huge investment in a player who has risen to the moment in Tampa -- four fourth quarter comebacks in 2025 -- but has also put his flaws on display (a league-high 16 interceptions in 2024).
With Mayfield locked in, 2026 could instead be a referendum on head coach Todd Bowles. He was promoted to
the role after Bruce Arians' retirement and kept it through a string of good-not-great seasons. But his defense has backslid and the Bucs have failed to capitalize on an uneven NFC South. A losing record could seal his fate.
What will Tampa Bay's 2026 look like?
Key addition: EDGE Rueben Bain Jr.
Tampa Bay's 39.1 percent pressure rate was third-best in the NFL, but it came in large part due to a 33 percent blitz rate (fourth-best). Even more concerning, the Bucs generated a ton of pressure but their 5.8 percent sack rate ranked just 23rd. Yaya Diaby had 68 pressures and seven sacks, but he was largely fighting a battle on his own. Only two other players had more than 30 pressures last year; tackle Vita Vea and unsigned free agent Haason Reddick.
That made Bain's first round selection an obvious choice. While he earned criticism for a small wingspan, Bain was a monster at Miami. He had 9.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss in an All-American season and showed his ability to win with strength and violence or finesse and quickness.
Key departure: LB Lavonte David
David finally retired this offseason, though he's mentioned returning to play alongside Rueben Bain. There's no easy replacement for a 14-year veteran who made himself fundamental to Tampa Bay's identity. Ultimately, however, David was a step slower in his mid-30s, leading to declining coverage skills and rising missed tackle rates.
The concern now is that the players signed to replace him have similar issues. Christian Rozeboom struggled in coverage and missed nearly one out of every eight tackling opportunities last season. Alex Anzalone can replace some of David's leadership and is coming off another solid season, but his 32nd birthday approaches and an age-related decline could follow. The pressure will be on rookie second round pick Josiah Trotter to make an immediate impact and carry David's banner forward in Florida.
Potential 2026 breakout player: WR Jalen McMillan
McMillan was Tampa Bay's most efficient wide receiver last season, averaging a team-high 2.14 yards per route run. That was in a small sample size, however; only four games played as he worked back from (Kurt Angle voice) a broken freakin' neck suffered in the preseason.
Mike Evans' departure has created the space to join the startling lineup alongside 2025 draftee Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin, the latter of which is awesome but is also 30 years old and has played only 16 games the last two seasons. Opportunity will come for the third-year wideout to prove he can be a full-time headache for NFC South defenses.
Position ranks
- QB rank (expected points added per dropback, via RBSDM.com): 19
- WR corps rank: 11
- RB corps rank: 25
- TE corps rank: 23
Will they improve in 2026?
A reinforced defense should play to Todd Bowles' strengths, but the offense leaves questions left to answer -- even after locking down Baker Mayfield for the immediate future.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: Buccaneers 2026 season preview: Is Baker Mayfield Tampa's problem or NFC South's?
